use crate::indicators::metadata::{IndicatorMetadata, ParamDef};
use crate::traits::Next;
use crate::indicators::high_pass::HighPass;
use crate::indicators::super_smoother::SuperSmoother;
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct SimplePredictor {
hp: HighPass,
ss: SuperSmoother,
q: f64,
signal_history: [f64; 2],
count: usize,
}
impl SimplePredictor {
pub fn new(hp_len: usize, lp_len: usize, q: f64) -> Self {
Self {
hp: HighPass::new(hp_len),
ss: SuperSmoother::new(lp_len),
q,
signal_history: [0.0; 2],
count: 0,
}
}
}
impl Default for SimplePredictor {
fn default() -> Self {
Self::new(15, 30, 0.35)
}
}
impl Next<f64> for SimplePredictor {
type Output = f64;
fn next(&mut self, input: f64) -> Self::Output {
self.count += 1;
let signal = self.ss.next(self.hp.next(input));
let c1 = 1.8 * self.q;
let c2 = -self.q * self.q;
let sum = 1.0 - c1 - c2;
let res = if self.count < 3 {
signal
} else {
(signal - c1 * self.signal_history[0] - c2 * self.signal_history[1]) / sum
};
self.signal_history[1] = self.signal_history[0];
self.signal_history[0] = signal;
res
}
}
pub const SIMPLE_PREDICTOR_METADATA: IndicatorMetadata = IndicatorMetadata {
name: "SimplePredictor",
description: "A fixed-coefficient 2-pole linear predictive filter.",
usage: "Use as a lightweight one-bar-ahead price predictor for cycle-mode markets. Its low computational cost makes it suitable for real-time streaming at high frequency.",
keywords: &["prediction", "cycle", "ehlers", "dsp"],
ehlers_summary: "Ehlers derives a Simple Predictor that extrapolates price one bar forward using only the current and prior bars weighted by the dominant cycle coefficient. Despite its simplicity it provides useful one-bar forecasts in cycling markets, demonstrating the predictive value of cycle measurement.",
params: &[
ParamDef {
name: "hp_len",
default: "15",
description: "HighPass filter length",
},
ParamDef {
name: "lp_len",
default: "30",
description: "LowPass (SuperSmoother) length",
},
ParamDef {
name: "q",
default: "0.35",
description: "Damping/Predictor coefficient",
},
],
formula_source: "https://github.com/lavs9/quantwave/blob/main/references/traderstipsreference/TRADERS’%20TIPS%20-%20JANUARY%202025.html",
formula_latex: r#"
\[
Predict = \frac{Signal - 1.8Q \cdot Signal_{t-1} + Q^2 \cdot Signal_{t-2}}{1 - 1.8Q + Q^2}
\]
"#,
gold_standard_file: "simple_predictor.json",
category: "Ehlers DSP",
};
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
use crate::traits::Next;
use proptest::prelude::*;
#[test]
fn test_simple_predictor_basic() {
let mut sp = SimplePredictor::new(15, 30, 0.35);
for i in 0..50 {
let val = sp.next(100.0 + i as f64);
assert!(!val.is_nan());
}
}
proptest! {
#[test]
fn test_simple_predictor_parity(
inputs in prop::collection::vec(1.0..100.0, 50..100),
) {
let hp_len = 15;
let lp_len = 30;
let q = 0.35;
let mut sp = SimplePredictor::new(hp_len, lp_len, q);
let streaming_results: Vec<f64> = inputs.iter().map(|&x| sp.next(x)).collect();
let mut batch_results = Vec::with_capacity(inputs.len());
let mut hp = HighPass::new(hp_len);
let mut ss = SuperSmoother::new(lp_len);
let signal_vals: Vec<f64> = inputs.iter().map(|&x| ss.next(hp.next(x))).collect();
let c1 = 1.8 * q;
let c2 = -q * q;
let sum = 1.0 - c1 - c2;
for (i, &signal) in signal_vals.iter().enumerate() {
let bar = i + 1;
let res = if bar < 3 {
signal
} else {
(signal - c1 * signal_vals[i-1] - c2 * signal_vals[i-2]) / sum
};
batch_results.push(res);
}
for (s, b) in streaming_results.iter().zip(batch_results.iter()) {
approx::assert_relative_eq!(s, b, epsilon = 1e-10);
}
}
}
}