use crate::indicators::metadata::{IndicatorMetadata, ParamDef};
use crate::traits::Next;
use crate::indicators::high_pass::HighPass;
use crate::indicators::super_smoother::SuperSmoother;
use std::collections::VecDeque;
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct GriffithsPredictor {
length: usize,
bars_fwd: usize,
mu: f64,
hp: HighPass,
ss: SuperSmoother,
peak: f64,
signal_window: VecDeque<f64>,
coef: Vec<f64>,
}
impl GriffithsPredictor {
pub fn new(lower_bound: usize, upper_bound: usize, length: usize, bars_fwd: usize) -> Self {
Self {
length,
bars_fwd,
mu: 1.0 / (length as f64),
hp: HighPass::new(upper_bound),
ss: SuperSmoother::new(lower_bound),
peak: 0.1,
signal_window: VecDeque::with_capacity(length + 1),
coef: vec![0.0; length + 1], }
}
}
impl Default for GriffithsPredictor {
fn default() -> Self {
Self::new(18, 40, 18, 2)
}
}
impl Next<f64> for GriffithsPredictor {
type Output = f64;
fn next(&mut self, input: f64) -> Self::Output {
let hp_val = self.hp.next(input);
let lp_val = self.ss.next(hp_val);
self.peak *= 0.991;
if lp_val.abs() > self.peak {
self.peak = lp_val.abs();
}
let signal = if self.peak != 0.0 {
lp_val / self.peak
} else {
0.0
};
self.signal_window.push_front(signal);
if self.signal_window.len() > self.length {
self.signal_window.pop_back();
}
if self.signal_window.len() < self.length {
return 0.0;
}
let mut xx = vec![0.0; self.length + 1];
for (i, val) in xx.iter_mut().enumerate().skip(1).take(self.length) {
*val = self.signal_window[self.length - i];
}
let mut x_bar = 0.0;
for count in 1..=self.length {
x_bar += xx[self.length - count] * self.coef[count];
}
for count in 1..=self.length {
self.coef[count] += self.mu * (xx[self.length] - x_bar) * xx[self.length - count];
}
let mut x_pred = 0.0;
let mut xx_temp = xx.clone();
for _advance in 1..=self.bars_fwd {
x_pred = 0.0;
for count in 1..=self.length {
x_pred += xx_temp[self.length + 1 - count] * self.coef[count];
}
for count in 1..self.length {
xx_temp[count] = xx_temp[count + 1];
}
xx_temp[self.length] = x_pred;
}
x_pred
}
}
pub const GRIFFITHS_PREDICTOR_METADATA: IndicatorMetadata = IndicatorMetadata {
name: "GriffithsPredictor",
description: "Adaptive LMS linear predictive filter for signal forecasting.",
usage: "Use for short-horizon price prediction by projecting the dominant market cycle one or two bars forward. Works best in oscillating markets; disable in strong trends.",
keywords: &["prediction", "cycle", "ehlers", "dsp"],
ehlers_summary: "The Griffiths Predictor uses autoregressive coefficients from the Griffiths cycle measurement to extrapolate the current dominant cycle one bar ahead. By fitting an AR model to cycle-filtered price, it generates a one-step-ahead forecast useful for anticipatory entries at predicted cycle turns.",
params: &[
ParamDef {
name: "lower_bound",
default: "18",
description: "Lower frequency bound (SS length)",
},
ParamDef {
name: "upper_bound",
default: "40",
description: "Upper frequency bound (HP length)",
},
ParamDef {
name: "length",
default: "18",
description: "LMS filter length",
},
ParamDef {
name: "bars_fwd",
default: "2",
description: "Number of bars to predict forward",
},
],
formula_source: "https://github.com/lavs9/quantwave/blob/main/references/traderstipsreference/TRADERS’%20TIPS%20-%20JANUARY%202025.html",
formula_latex: r#"
\[
\mu = 1/L
\]
\[
\bar{x} = \sum_{i=1}^L xx_{L-i} \cdot coef_i
\]
\[
coef_i = coef_i + \mu(xx_L - \bar{x})xx_{L-i}
\]
"#,
gold_standard_file: "griffiths_predictor.json",
category: "Ehlers DSP",
};
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
use crate::traits::Next;
use proptest::prelude::*;
#[test]
fn test_griffiths_predictor_basic() {
let mut gp = GriffithsPredictor::new(18, 40, 18, 2);
for i in 0..100 {
let val = gp.next(100.0 + (i as f64 * 0.1).sin());
assert!(!val.is_nan());
}
}
proptest! {
#[test]
fn test_griffiths_predictor_parity(
inputs in prop::collection::vec(1.0..100.0, 100..200),
) {
let lb = 18;
let ub = 40;
let length = 18;
let bars_fwd = 2;
let mut gp = GriffithsPredictor::new(lb, ub, length, bars_fwd);
let streaming_results: Vec<f64> = inputs.iter().map(|&x| gp.next(x)).collect();
let mut batch_results = Vec::with_capacity(inputs.len());
let mut hp = HighPass::new(ub);
let mut ss = SuperSmoother::new(lb);
let lp_vals: Vec<f64> = inputs.iter().map(|&x| ss.next(hp.next(x))).collect();
let mut peak = 0.1;
let mut signals = Vec::new();
let mut coef = vec![0.0; length + 1];
let mu = 1.0 / length as f64;
for (i, &lp_val) in lp_vals.iter().enumerate() {
peak *= 0.991;
if lp_val.abs() > peak {
peak = lp_val.abs();
}
let signal = if peak != 0.0 { lp_val / peak } else { 0.0 };
signals.push(signal);
if signals.len() < length {
batch_results.push(0.0);
continue;
}
let mut xx = vec![0.0; length + 1];
for j in 1..=length {
xx[j] = signals[i - (length - j)];
}
let mut x_bar = 0.0;
for count in 1..=length {
x_bar += xx[length - count] * coef[count];
}
for count in 1..=length {
coef[count] += mu * (xx[length] - x_bar) * xx[length - count];
}
let mut x_pred = 0.0;
let mut xx_temp = xx.clone();
for _advance in 1..=bars_fwd {
x_pred = 0.0;
for count in 1..=length {
x_pred += xx_temp[length + 1 - count] * coef[count];
}
for count in 1..length {
xx_temp[count] = xx_temp[count + 1];
}
xx_temp[length] = x_pred;
}
batch_results.push(x_pred);
}
for (s, b) in streaming_results.iter().zip(batch_results.iter()) {
approx::assert_relative_eq!(s, b, epsilon = 1e-10);
}
}
}
}