pmat 3.18.2

impl MetricTrendStore {
    /// Create new trend store
    #[provable_contracts_macros::contract("pmat-core.yaml", equation = "check_compliance")]
    pub fn new() -> Result<Self> {
        let storage_path = PathBuf::from(".pmat-metrics/trends");
        std::fs::create_dir_all(&storage_path).context("Failed to create trends directory")?;

        Ok(Self {
            storage_path,
            cache: HashMap::new(),
            graph: CsrGraph::new(),
            node_map: HashMap::new(),
            reverse_node_map: HashMap::new(),
            hotness_cache: HashMap::new(),
            next_node_id: 0,
        })
    }

    /// Load from custom path
    #[provable_contracts_macros::contract("pmat-core.yaml", equation = "path_exists")]
    pub fn from_path<P: AsRef<Path>>(path: P) -> Result<Self> {
        let storage_path = path.as_ref().to_path_buf();
        std::fs::create_dir_all(&storage_path).context("Failed to create trends directory")?;

        Ok(Self {
            storage_path,
            cache: HashMap::new(),
            graph: CsrGraph::new(),
            node_map: HashMap::new(),
            reverse_node_map: HashMap::new(),
            hotness_cache: HashMap::new(),
            next_node_id: 0,
        })
    }

    /// Record new metric observation
    ///
    /// Holds an exclusive advisory lock on `<metric>.lock` and reloads the
    /// metric's observations from disk before appending, so a fresh store
    /// instance (each `pmat record-metric` invocation creates one) appends
    /// to history instead of overwriting it, and concurrent recorders
    /// cannot lose each other's updates.
    #[provable_contracts_macros::contract("pmat-core.yaml", equation = "check_compliance")]
    pub fn record(&mut self, metric: &str, value: f64, timestamp: i64) -> Result<()> {
        use fs2::FileExt;

        let lock_path = self.storage_path.join(format!("{metric}.lock"));
        let lock_file = std::fs::OpenOptions::new()
            .create(true)
            .truncate(false)
            .write(true)
            .open(&lock_path)
            .context("Failed to open metric lock file")?;

        // Bounded wait: a stuck holder must not hang recording forever
        let deadline = std::time::Instant::now() + std::time::Duration::from_secs(5);
        loop {
            match lock_file.try_lock_exclusive() {
                Ok(()) => break,
                Err(_) if std::time::Instant::now() < deadline => {
                    std::thread::sleep(std::time::Duration::from_millis(50));
                }
                Err(e) => {
                    anyhow::bail!(
                        "Timed out waiting for metric lock {}: {e}",
                        lock_path.display()
                    );
                }
            }
        }

        let result = self.record_locked(metric, value, timestamp);
        let _ = FileExt::unlock(&lock_file);
        result
    }

    /// Append one observation while the metric lock is held
    fn record_locked(&mut self, metric: &str, value: f64, timestamp: i64) -> Result<()> {
        // Merge observations persisted by other invocations since this
        // store instance was created. Pre-3.18.1 record() wrote without a
        // lock or atomic rename and could leave a torn/corrupt history file;
        // preserve such a file aside and continue with what we have, rather
        // than failing every future record for this metric.
        if let Err(e) = self.load(metric) {
            let path = self.storage_path.join(format!("{metric}.json"));
            let corrupt_path = self.storage_path.join(format!("{metric}.json.corrupt"));
            let _ = std::fs::rename(&path, &corrupt_path);
            eprintln!(
                "warning: unreadable metric history for '{metric}' ({e}); moved aside to {}",
                corrupt_path.display()
            );
        }

        let obs = MetricObservation {
            metric: metric.to_string(),
            value,
            timestamp,
        };

        // Add to cache
        self.cache
            .entry(metric.to_string())
            .or_default()
            .push(obs.clone());

        // Phase 3.2: Add to CSR graph
        self.add_to_graph(&obs)?;

        // Persist to JSON (dual-write mode)
        self.persist(metric)?;

        Ok(())
    }

    /// Add observation to CSR graph (Phase 3.2)
    fn add_to_graph(&mut self, obs: &MetricObservation) -> Result<()> {
        // Check if this observation is already in the graph (prevent duplicates)
        if self.node_map.contains_key(&obs.timestamp) {
            return Ok(()); // Already added
        }

        // Create node for this observation
        let node_id = NodeId(self.next_node_id);
        self.next_node_id += 1;

        // Store mapping
        self.node_map.insert(obs.timestamp, node_id);
        self.reverse_node_map.insert(node_id, obs.timestamp);

        // Find previous observation for this metric (to create temporal edge)
        if let Some(observations) = self.cache.get(&obs.metric) {
            if observations.len() > 1 {
                // Get second-to-last observation (before we just pushed the new one)
                let prev_obs = &observations[observations.len() - 2];

                if let Some(prev_node_id) = self.node_map.get(&prev_obs.timestamp) {
                    // Create temporal edge: prev → current
                    // Weight = Δt (time between measurements in seconds)
                    let delta_t = (obs.timestamp - prev_obs.timestamp) as f32;
                    self.graph.add_edge(*prev_node_id, node_id, delta_t)?;
                }
            }
        }

        Ok(())
    }

    /// Get trend analysis for metric (last N days)
    #[provable_contracts_macros::contract("pmat-core.yaml", equation = "check_compliance")]
    pub fn trend(&mut self, metric: &str, days: usize) -> Result<TrendAnalysis> {
        // Load from disk if not cached
        if !self.cache.contains_key(metric) {
            self.load(metric)?;
        }

        let observations = self.cache.get(metric).context("Metric not found")?;

        // Filter to last N days
        let now = chrono::Utc::now().timestamp();
        let cutoff = now - (days as i64 * 86400);
        let filtered: Vec<_> = observations
            .iter()
            .filter(|obs| obs.timestamp >= cutoff)
            .cloned()
            .collect();

        if filtered.is_empty() {
            anyhow::bail!("No observations in last {} days", days);
        }

        // Compute statistics
        let values: Vec<f64> = filtered.iter().map(|obs| obs.value).collect();
        let mean = values.iter().sum::<f64>() / values.len() as f64;
        let variance = values.iter().map(|v| (v - mean).powi(2)).sum::<f64>() / values.len() as f64;
        let std_dev = variance.sqrt();
        let min = values.iter().cloned().fold(f64::INFINITY, f64::min);
        let max = values.iter().cloned().fold(f64::NEG_INFINITY, f64::max);

        // Linear regression (simple slope calculation)
        let (slope, p_value) = self.compute_trend(&filtered);

        // Determine direction (p < 0.05 for significance)
        let direction = if p_value > 0.05 {
            TrendDirection::Stable
        } else if slope < 0.0 {
            TrendDirection::Improving
        } else {
            TrendDirection::Regressing
        };

        Ok(TrendAnalysis {
            metric: metric.to_string(),
            count: filtered.len(),
            mean,
            std_dev,
            min,
            max,
            direction,
            slope,
            p_value,
        })
    }

    /// Compute linear regression trend
    fn compute_trend(&self, observations: &[MetricObservation]) -> (f64, f64) {
        if observations.len() < 2 {
            return (0.0, 1.0); // Not enough data
        }

        // Normalize timestamps to days since first observation
        let first_ts = observations[0].timestamp;
        let xs: Vec<f64> = observations
            .iter()
            .map(|obs| (obs.timestamp - first_ts) as f64 / 86400.0)
            .collect();
        let ys: Vec<f64> = observations.iter().map(|obs| obs.value).collect();

        // Simple linear regression
        let n = xs.len() as f64;
        let mean_x = xs.iter().sum::<f64>() / n;
        let mean_y = ys.iter().sum::<f64>() / n;

        let cov = xs
            .iter()
            .zip(&ys)
            .map(|(x, y)| (x - mean_x) * (y - mean_y))
            .sum::<f64>();
        let var_x = xs.iter().map(|x| (x - mean_x).powi(2)).sum::<f64>();

        let slope = if var_x > 0.0 { cov / var_x } else { 0.0 };

        // Compute p-value (t-test for slope)
        let residuals: Vec<f64> = xs
            .iter()
            .zip(&ys)
            .map(|(x, y)| y - (slope * x + mean_y - slope * mean_x))
            .collect();
        let sse = residuals.iter().map(|r| r.powi(2)).sum::<f64>();
        let mse = sse / (n - 2.0).max(1.0);
        let se_slope = (mse / var_x).sqrt();
        let t_stat = slope / se_slope;

        // Rough p-value (two-tailed t-test, approximation)
        let p_value = if t_stat.abs() > 2.0 {
            0.01 // Significant
        } else if t_stat.abs() > 1.5 {
            0.05
        } else {
            0.5 // Not significant
        };

        (slope, p_value)
    }

}