asupersync 0.3.1

Spec-first, cancel-correct, capability-secure async runtime for Rust.
Documentation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
752
753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
773
774
775
776
777
778
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
794
795
796
797
798
799
800
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
811
812
813
814
815
816
817
818
819
820
821
822
823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830
831
832
833
834
835
836
837
838
839
840
841
842
843
844
845
846
847
848
849
850
851
852
853
854
855
856
857
858
859
860
861
862
863
864
865
866
867
868
869
870
871
872
873
874
875
876
877
878
879
880
881
882
883
884
885
886
887
888
889
890
891
892
893
894
895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
912
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
925
926
927
928
929
930
931
932
933
934
935
936
937
938
939
940
941
942
943
944
945
946
947
948
949
950
951
952
953
954
955
956
957
958
959
960
961
962
963
964
965
966
967
968
969
970
971
972
973
974
975
976
977
978
979
980
981
982
983
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000
1001
1002
1003
1004
1005
1006
1007
1008
1009
1010
1011
1012
1013
1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
1019
1020
1021
1022
1023
1024
1025
1026
1027
1028
1029
1030
1031
1032
1033
1034
1035
1036
1037
1038
1039
1040
1041
1042
1043
1044
1045
1046
1047
1048
1049
1050
1051
1052
1053
1054
1055
1056
1057
1058
1059
1060
1061
1062
1063
1064
1065
1066
1067
1068
1069
1070
1071
1072
1073
1074
1075
1076
1077
1078
1079
1080
1081
1082
1083
1084
1085
1086
1087
1088
1089
1090
1091
1092
1093
1094
1095
1096
1097
1098
1099
1100
1101
1102
1103
1104
1105
1106
1107
1108
1109
1110
1111
1112
1113
1114
1115
1116
1117
1118
1119
1120
1121
1122
1123
1124
1125
1126
1127
1128
1129
1130
1131
1132
1133
1134
1135
1136
1137
1138
1139
1140
1141
1142
1143
1144
1145
1146
1147
1148
1149
1150
1151
1152
1153
1154
1155
1156
1157
1158
1159
1160
1161
1162
1163
1164
1165
1166
1167
1168
1169
1170
1171
1172
1173
1174
1175
1176
1177
1178
1179
1180
1181
1182
1183
1184
1185
1186
1187
1188
1189
1190
1191
1192
1193
1194
1195
1196
1197
1198
1199
1200
1201
1202
1203
1204
1205
1206
1207
1208
1209
1210
1211
1212
1213
1214
1215
1216
1217
1218
1219
1220
1221
1222
1223
1224
1225
1226
1227
1228
1229
1230
1231
1232
1233
1234
1235
1236
1237
1238
1239
1240
1241
1242
1243
1244
1245
1246
1247
1248
1249
1250
1251
1252
1253
1254
1255
1256
1257
1258
1259
1260
1261
1262
1263
1264
1265
1266
1267
1268
1269
1270
1271
1272
1273
1274
1275
1276
1277
1278
1279
1280
1281
1282
1283
1284
1285
1286
1287
1288
1289
1290
1291
1292
1293
1294
1295
1296
1297
1298
1299
1300
1301
1302
1303
1304
1305
1306
1307
1308
1309
1310
1311
1312
1313
1314
1315
1316
1317
1318
1319
1320
1321
1322
1323
1324
1325
1326
1327
1328
1329
1330
1331
1332
1333
1334
1335
1336
1337
1338
1339
1340
1341
1342
1343
1344
1345
1346
1347
1348
1349
1350
1351
1352
1353
1354
1355
1356
1357
1358
1359
1360
1361
1362
1363
1364
1365
1366
1367
1368
1369
1370
1371
1372
1373
1374
1375
1376
1377
1378
1379
1380
1381
1382
1383
1384
1385
1386
1387
1388
1389
1390
1391
1392
1393
1394
1395
1396
1397
1398
1399
1400
1401
1402
1403
1404
1405
1406
1407
1408
1409
1410
1411
1412
1413
1414
1415
1416
1417
1418
1419
1420
1421
1422
1423
1424
1425
1426
1427
1428
1429
1430
1431
1432
1433
1434
1435
1436
1437
1438
1439
1440
1441
1442
1443
1444
1445
1446
1447
1448
1449
1450
1451
1452
1453
1454
1455
1456
1457
1458
1459
1460
1461
1462
1463
1464
1465
1466
1467
1468
1469
1470
1471
1472
1473
1474
1475
1476
1477
1478
1479
1480
1481
1482
1483
1484
1485
1486
1487
1488
1489
1490
1491
1492
1493
1494
1495
1496
1497
1498
1499
1500
1501
1502
1503
1504
1505
1506
1507
1508
1509
1510
1511
1512
1513
1514
1515
1516
1517
1518
1519
1520
1521
1522
1523
1524
1525
1526
1527
1528
1529
1530
1531
1532
1533
1534
1535
1536
1537
1538
1539
1540
1541
1542
1543
1544
1545
1546
1547
1548
1549
1550
1551
1552
1553
1554
1555
1556
1557
1558
1559
1560
1561
1562
1563
1564
1565
1566
1567
1568
1569
1570
1571
1572
1573
1574
1575
1576
1577
1578
1579
1580
1581
1582
1583
1584
1585
1586
1587
1588
1589
1590
1591
1592
1593
1594
1595
1596
1597
1598
1599
1600
1601
1602
1603
1604
1605
1606
1607
1608
1609
1610
1611
1612
1613
1614
1615
1616
1617
1618
1619
1620
1621
1622
1623
1624
1625
1626
1627
1628
1629
1630
1631
1632
1633
1634
1635
1636
1637
1638
1639
1640
1641
1642
1643
1644
1645
1646
//! Distribution-free conformal calibration for lab metrics.
//!
//! Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage
//! guarantees for prediction sets. Given a target miscoverage rate `alpha`,
//! the conformal prediction set `C(X)` satisfies:
//!
//!   `P(Y ∈ C(X)) ≥ 1 - alpha`
//!
//! for **any** joint distribution of (X, Y), with no parametric assumptions.
//!
//! # Algorithm: Split Conformal Prediction
//!
//! 1. **Calibration phase**: Accumulate conformity scores `s_1, ..., s_n` from
//!    past oracle reports. A conformity score measures how "normal" an observation
//!    is — lower scores indicate more conforming behavior.
//!
//! 2. **Prediction phase**: For a new observation, compute the `(1 - alpha)(1 + 1/n)`
//!    quantile of the calibration scores. The prediction set is all values with
//!    conformity score ≤ this threshold.
//!
//! 3. **Coverage guarantee**: By the exchangeability assumption (all runs are drawn
//!    from the same program under varying seeds), Vovk et al. (2005) show that
//!    `P(s_{n+1} ≤ q_hat) ≥ 1 - alpha`.
//!
//! # Conformity Scores for Oracle Metrics
//!
//! We define conformity scores from `OracleReport` statistics:
//!
//! - **Violation score**: 0 if passed, 1 if violated (binary nonconformity).
//! - **Entity score**: Normalized entity count relative to running median.
//! - **Event density score**: Events per entity relative to calibration set.
//!
//! # References
//!
//! - Vovk, Gammerman, Shafer, "Algorithmic Learning in a Random World" (2005)
//! - Lei et al., "Distribution-Free Predictive Inference for Regression" (JASA 2018)
//! - Angelopoulos & Bates, "A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction" (2022)

use crate::lab::oracle::{OracleEntryReport, OracleReport};
use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};
use std::collections::BTreeMap;

fn count_to_f64(count: usize) -> f64 {
    f64::from(count.min(u32::MAX as usize) as u32)
}

fn assert_valid_alpha(alpha: f64) {
    assert!(
        alpha.is_finite() && alpha > 0.0 && alpha < 1.0,
        "alpha must be finite and in (0, 1), got {alpha}"
    );
}

fn assert_valid_min_samples(min_samples: usize) {
    assert!(min_samples > 0, "min_calibration_samples must be > 0");
}

/// Configuration for the conformal calibrator.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct ConformalConfig {
    /// Target miscoverage rate (e.g., 0.05 for 95% coverage).
    pub alpha: f64,
    /// Minimum calibration samples before producing prediction sets.
    pub min_calibration_samples: usize,
}

impl Default for ConformalConfig {
    fn default() -> Self {
        Self {
            alpha: 0.05,
            min_calibration_samples: 5,
        }
    }
}

impl ConformalConfig {
    /// Create a config with the given miscoverage rate.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn new(alpha: f64) -> Self {
        assert_valid_alpha(alpha);
        Self {
            alpha,
            ..Default::default()
        }
    }

    /// Set the minimum calibration samples.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn min_samples(mut self, n: usize) -> Self {
        assert_valid_min_samples(n);
        self.min_calibration_samples = n;
        self
    }
}

/// A conformity score for a single oracle observation.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq)]
pub struct ConformityScore {
    /// The nonconformity value (higher = more unusual).
    pub value: f64,
    /// Whether the oracle violated its invariant.
    pub violated: bool,
}

/// Per-invariant calibration state.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
struct InvariantCalibration {
    /// Accumulated conformity scores (sorted for quantile computation).
    scores: Vec<f64>,
    /// Running sum of entity counts for normalization.
    entity_sum: f64,
    /// Running sum of event counts for normalization.
    event_sum: f64,
    /// Number of violations observed.
    violation_count: usize,
}

impl InvariantCalibration {
    fn new() -> Self {
        Self {
            scores: Vec::new(),
            entity_sum: 0.0,
            event_sum: 0.0,
            violation_count: 0,
        }
    }

    fn n(&self) -> usize {
        self.scores.len()
    }

    fn mean_entities(&self) -> f64 {
        let n = self.n();
        if n == 0 {
            1.0
        } else {
            (self.entity_sum / count_to_f64(n)).max(1.0)
        }
    }

    fn mean_events(&self) -> f64 {
        let n = self.n();
        if n == 0 {
            1.0
        } else {
            (self.event_sum / count_to_f64(n)).max(1.0)
        }
    }

    fn empirical_violation_rate(&self) -> f64 {
        let n = self.n();
        if n == 0 {
            0.0
        } else {
            count_to_f64(self.violation_count) / count_to_f64(n)
        }
    }
}

/// A prediction set for a single invariant.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct PredictionSet {
    /// The invariant name.
    pub invariant: String,
    /// The conformity threshold (quantile).
    pub threshold: f64,
    /// Whether a new observation is within the prediction set (conforming).
    pub conforming: bool,
    /// The new observation's conformity score.
    pub score: f64,
    /// Number of calibration samples used.
    pub calibration_n: usize,
    /// Target coverage level (1 - alpha).
    pub coverage_target: f64,
}

/// Empirical coverage tracking for calibration diagnostics.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct CoverageTracker {
    /// Total predictions made.
    pub total: usize,
    /// Predictions where the observation was within the prediction set.
    pub covered: usize,
}

impl CoverageTracker {
    fn new() -> Self {
        Self {
            total: 0,
            covered: 0,
        }
    }

    /// Empirical coverage rate.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn rate(&self) -> f64 {
        if self.total == 0 {
            1.0
        } else {
            count_to_f64(self.covered) / count_to_f64(self.total)
        }
    }
}

/// Calibration report with coverage diagnostics.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct CalibrationReport {
    /// Per-invariant prediction sets from the latest observation.
    pub prediction_sets: Vec<PredictionSet>,
    /// Per-invariant empirical coverage tracking.
    pub coverage: BTreeMap<String, CoverageTracker>,
    /// Overall empirical coverage across all invariants.
    pub overall_coverage: CoverageTracker,
    /// Target miscoverage rate.
    pub alpha: f64,
    /// Total calibration observations.
    pub calibration_samples: usize,
}

impl CalibrationReport {
    /// Returns true if all observed coverage rates are above the target.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn is_well_calibrated(&self) -> bool {
        if self.overall_coverage.total == 0 {
            return true;
        }
        // Allow small slack for finite samples.
        let target = 1.0 - self.alpha;
        self.overall_coverage.rate() >= target - 0.05
    }

    /// Invariants whose empirical coverage falls below the target.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn miscalibrated_invariants(&self) -> Vec<String> {
        let target = 1.0 - self.alpha;
        self.coverage
            .iter()
            .filter(|(_, tracker)| tracker.total > 0 && tracker.rate() < target - 0.05)
            .map(|(name, _)| name.clone())
            .collect()
    }

    /// Render as structured text.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn to_text(&self) -> String {
        use std::fmt::Write;
        let mut out = String::new();
        out.push_str("CONFORMAL CALIBRATION REPORT\n");
        let _ = writeln!(
            out,
            "target coverage: {:.1}% (alpha={:.3})",
            (1.0 - self.alpha) * 100.0,
            self.alpha
        );
        let _ = writeln!(out, "calibration samples: {}", self.calibration_samples);
        let _ = writeln!(
            out,
            "overall empirical coverage: {:.1}% ({}/{})\n",
            self.overall_coverage.rate() * 100.0,
            self.overall_coverage.covered,
            self.overall_coverage.total,
        );

        for ps in &self.prediction_sets {
            let status = if ps.conforming { "OK" } else { "ANOMALOUS" };
            let _ = writeln!(
                out,
                "  {}: score={:.4} threshold={:.4} [{}] (n={})",
                ps.invariant, ps.score, ps.threshold, status, ps.calibration_n
            );
        }

        let miscal = self.miscalibrated_invariants();
        if miscal.is_empty() {
            out.push_str("\ncalibration: WELL-CALIBRATED\n");
        } else {
            let _ = writeln!(
                out,
                "\ncalibration: MISCALIBRATED on: {}",
                miscal.join(", ")
            );
        }

        out
    }

    /// Serialize to JSON.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn to_json(&self) -> serde_json::Value {
        serde_json::json!({
            "alpha": self.alpha,
            "coverage_target": 1.0 - self.alpha,
            "calibration_samples": self.calibration_samples,
            "overall_coverage": {
                "total": self.overall_coverage.total,
                "covered": self.overall_coverage.covered,
                "rate": self.overall_coverage.rate(),
            },
            "well_calibrated": self.is_well_calibrated(),
            "prediction_sets": self.prediction_sets,
            "per_invariant_coverage": self.coverage.iter().map(|(name, t)| {
                serde_json::json!({
                    "invariant": name,
                    "total": t.total,
                    "covered": t.covered,
                    "rate": t.rate(),
                })
            }).collect::<Vec<_>>(),
        })
    }
}

/// Distribution-free conformal calibrator for oracle metrics.
///
/// Accumulates conformity scores from oracle reports during a calibration
/// phase, then produces prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage
/// for new observations.
///
/// # Coverage Guarantee
///
/// For exchangeable observations (same program, varying seeds), the
/// prediction set `C(X_{n+1})` satisfies:
///
///   `P(Y_{n+1} ∈ C(X_{n+1})) ≥ 1 - alpha`
///
/// This is a finite-sample, distribution-free guarantee.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct ConformalCalibrator {
    config: ConformalConfig,
    /// Per-invariant calibration state.
    calibrations: BTreeMap<String, InvariantCalibration>,
    /// Per-invariant coverage tracking.
    coverage_trackers: BTreeMap<String, CoverageTracker>,
    /// Overall coverage tracker.
    overall_coverage: CoverageTracker,
    /// Total calibration observations.
    n_calibration: usize,
}

impl ConformalCalibrator {
    /// Create a new calibrator with the given config.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn new(config: ConformalConfig) -> Self {
        assert_valid_alpha(config.alpha);
        assert_valid_min_samples(config.min_calibration_samples);
        Self {
            config,
            calibrations: BTreeMap::new(),
            coverage_trackers: BTreeMap::new(),
            overall_coverage: CoverageTracker::new(),
            n_calibration: 0,
        }
    }

    /// Create a calibrator with the default config (alpha=0.05).
    #[must_use]
    pub fn default_calibrator() -> Self {
        Self::new(ConformalConfig::default())
    }

    /// Number of calibration observations accumulated.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn calibration_samples(&self) -> usize {
        self.n_calibration
    }

    /// Whether enough calibration samples have been collected.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn is_calibrated(&self) -> bool {
        self.n_calibration >= self.config.min_calibration_samples
    }

    /// Add a calibration observation from an oracle report.
    ///
    /// During the calibration phase, conformity scores are accumulated
    /// but no predictions are made.
    pub fn calibrate(&mut self, report: &OracleReport) {
        for entry in &report.entries {
            let cal = self
                .calibrations
                .entry(entry.invariant.clone())
                .or_insert_with(InvariantCalibration::new);
            let score = conformity_score(entry, cal);
            cal.scores.push(score);
            cal.entity_sum += count_to_f64(entry.stats.entities_tracked);
            cal.event_sum += count_to_f64(entry.stats.events_recorded);
            if !entry.passed {
                cal.violation_count += 1;
            }
        }
        self.n_calibration += 1;
    }

    /// Observe a new report and produce prediction sets.
    ///
    /// If not yet calibrated, returns `None`. Otherwise, returns a
    /// `CalibrationReport` with prediction sets and coverage diagnostics.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn predict(&mut self, report: &OracleReport) -> Option<CalibrationReport> {
        let was_already_calibrated = self.is_calibrated();

        if !was_already_calibrated {
            // Add to calibration set first.
            self.calibrate(report);
            // Whether we just became calibrated or still need more data,
            // skip the prediction for this observation: it is part of the
            // calibration set and testing it against the same set violates
            // the exchangeability assumption of split conformal prediction.
            return None;
        }

        let mut prediction_sets = Vec::new();

        for entry in &report.entries {
            let Some(cal) = self.calibrations.get(&entry.invariant) else {
                continue;
            };

            // Compute conformity score for the new observation.
            let score = conformity_score(entry, cal);

            // Compute the conformal quantile threshold.
            let threshold = conformal_quantile(&cal.scores, self.config.alpha);

            let conforming = score <= threshold;

            // Update coverage tracking.
            let tracker = self
                .coverage_trackers
                .entry(entry.invariant.clone())
                .or_insert_with(CoverageTracker::new);
            tracker.total += 1;
            if conforming {
                tracker.covered += 1;
            }
            self.overall_coverage.total += 1;
            if conforming {
                self.overall_coverage.covered += 1;
            }

            prediction_sets.push(PredictionSet {
                invariant: entry.invariant.clone(),
                threshold,
                conforming,
                score,
                calibration_n: cal.n(),
                coverage_target: 1.0 - self.config.alpha,
            });
        }

        // Grow the calibration set with this observation for future predictions,
        // unless it was already added above during the uncalibrated→calibrated transition.
        if was_already_calibrated {
            self.calibrate(report);
        }

        Some(CalibrationReport {
            prediction_sets,
            coverage: self.coverage_trackers.clone(),
            overall_coverage: self.overall_coverage.clone(),
            alpha: self.config.alpha,
            calibration_samples: self.n_calibration,
        })
    }

    /// Per-invariant empirical violation rates from calibration data.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn violation_rates(&self) -> BTreeMap<String, f64> {
        self.calibrations
            .iter()
            .map(|(name, cal)| (name.clone(), cal.empirical_violation_rate()))
            .collect()
    }

    /// Per-invariant coverage rates from prediction tracking.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn coverage_rates(&self) -> BTreeMap<String, f64> {
        self.coverage_trackers
            .iter()
            .map(|(name, tracker)| (name.clone(), tracker.rate()))
            .collect()
    }
}

/// Compute a conformity score for an oracle entry.
///
/// The score combines:
/// 1. Violation indicator (0/1) — dominates for invariant violations
/// 2. Entity count deviation from mean (normalized)
/// 3. Event density anomaly (events/entity vs mean)
///
/// Lower scores indicate more conforming behavior.
fn conformity_score(entry: &OracleEntryReport, cal: &InvariantCalibration) -> f64 {
    let violation_component = if entry.passed { 0.0 } else { 1.0 };

    // When calibration has no data, deviations are undefined — treat as zero.
    if cal.n() == 0 {
        return violation_component;
    }

    let mean_entities = cal.mean_entities();
    let entity_deviation = if mean_entities > 0.0 {
        ((count_to_f64(entry.stats.entities_tracked) - mean_entities) / mean_entities).abs()
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    let mean_events = cal.mean_events();
    let event_deviation = if mean_events > 0.0 {
        ((count_to_f64(entry.stats.events_recorded) - mean_events) / mean_events).abs()
    } else {
        0.0
    };

    // Weighted combination: violations dominate, deviations are secondary.
    0.1_f64.mul_add(
        event_deviation,
        0.1_f64.mul_add(entity_deviation, violation_component),
    )
}

/// Compute the conformal quantile from calibration scores.
///
/// Returns the `ceil((1-alpha)(1+1/n))`-th smallest value from the
/// sorted scores, which gives the finite-sample coverage guarantee.
fn conformal_quantile(scores: &[f64], alpha: f64) -> f64 {
    if scores.is_empty() {
        return f64::INFINITY;
    }

    let n = scores.len();
    let mut sorted = scores.to_vec();
    sorted.sort_by(|a, b| a.partial_cmp(b).unwrap_or(std::cmp::Ordering::Equal));

    // The conformal quantile level: ceil((1-alpha)(n+1)/n) mapped to index.
    // Equivalently: the ceil((1-alpha)(n+1))-th order statistic.
    let level = (1.0 - alpha) * (count_to_f64(n) + 1.0);
    #[allow(clippy::cast_sign_loss)]
    let idx = (level.ceil() as usize).min(n).saturating_sub(1);

    sorted[idx]
}

// ============================================================================
// Health threshold conformal calibration
// ============================================================================

/// How the threshold bounds anomalous values.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq, Eq)]
pub enum ThresholdMode {
    /// Only values above the threshold are anomalous (e.g., queue depth,
    /// restart intensity). Uses the (1-α)(n+1)-th order statistic directly.
    Upper,
    /// Both unusually high and unusually low values are anomalous.
    /// Uses |value - median| as the nonconformity score.
    TwoSided,
}

/// Configuration for health threshold calibration.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct HealthThresholdConfig {
    /// Target miscoverage rate (e.g., 0.05 for 95% coverage).
    pub alpha: f64,
    /// Minimum calibration samples before producing thresholds.
    pub min_calibration_samples: usize,
    /// Threshold direction.
    pub mode: ThresholdMode,
}

impl Default for HealthThresholdConfig {
    fn default() -> Self {
        Self {
            alpha: 0.05,
            min_calibration_samples: 5,
            mode: ThresholdMode::Upper,
        }
    }
}

impl HealthThresholdConfig {
    /// Create a config with the given miscoverage rate and mode.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn new(alpha: f64, mode: ThresholdMode) -> Self {
        assert_valid_alpha(alpha);
        Self {
            alpha,
            mode,
            ..Default::default()
        }
    }

    /// Set the minimum calibration samples.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn min_samples(mut self, n: usize) -> Self {
        assert_valid_min_samples(n);
        self.min_calibration_samples = n;
        self
    }
}

/// Result of checking a health metric against a conformal threshold.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct ThresholdCheck {
    /// The metric name.
    pub metric: String,
    /// The observed value.
    pub value: f64,
    /// The conformal threshold.
    pub threshold: f64,
    /// Whether the observation is within the prediction set (conforming).
    pub conforming: bool,
    /// The nonconformity score.
    pub nonconformity_score: f64,
    /// Number of calibration samples used.
    pub calibration_n: usize,
    /// Target coverage level (1 - alpha).
    pub coverage_target: f64,
}

/// Per-metric calibration state.
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
struct MetricCalibration {
    /// Raw observations for direct upper-bound thresholding.
    values: Vec<f64>,
}

impl MetricCalibration {
    fn new() -> Self {
        Self { values: Vec::new() }
    }

    fn n(&self) -> usize {
        self.values.len()
    }

    fn median(&self) -> f64 {
        if self.values.is_empty() {
            return 0.0;
        }
        let mut sorted = self.values.clone();
        sorted.sort_by(|a, b| a.partial_cmp(b).unwrap_or(std::cmp::Ordering::Equal));
        let mid = sorted.len() / 2;
        if sorted.len().is_multiple_of(2) && sorted.len() >= 2 {
            (sorted[mid - 1]).midpoint(sorted[mid])
        } else {
            sorted[mid]
        }
    }
}

/// Conformal calibrator for health metrics (queue depth, restart latency, etc.).
///
/// Accumulates observations during a calibration phase, then produces
/// adaptive thresholds with finite-sample, distribution-free coverage
/// guarantees.
///
/// # Coverage Guarantee
///
/// For exchangeable observations, P(new observation conforming) ≥ 1 - alpha.
/// This holds without distributional assumptions (Vovk et al. 2005).
///
/// # Modes
///
/// - [`ThresholdMode::Upper`]: Flags values above the conformal quantile.
///   Good for metrics where only high values are problematic (queue depth,
///   restart intensity).
///
/// - [`ThresholdMode::TwoSided`]: Uses |value - median| as the nonconformity
///   score. Flags observations that deviate from the calibration distribution
///   in either direction.
///
/// # Example
///
/// ```
/// use asupersync::lab::conformal::{
///     HealthThresholdCalibrator, HealthThresholdConfig, ThresholdMode,
/// };
///
/// let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
/// let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);
///
/// // Calibrate with normal observations
/// for depth in [3.0, 5.0, 4.0, 6.0, 3.0, 5.0, 4.0] {
///     cal.calibrate("queue_depth", depth);
/// }
///
/// // Check a new observation
/// let result = cal.check("queue_depth", 100.0).unwrap();
/// assert!(!result.conforming); // queue depth 100 is anomalous
/// ```
#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct HealthThresholdCalibrator {
    config: HealthThresholdConfig,
    metrics: BTreeMap<String, MetricCalibration>,
    coverage_trackers: BTreeMap<String, CoverageTracker>,
    n_calibration: usize,
}

impl HealthThresholdCalibrator {
    /// Create a new calibrator with the given config.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn new(config: HealthThresholdConfig) -> Self {
        assert_valid_alpha(config.alpha);
        assert_valid_min_samples(config.min_calibration_samples);
        Self {
            config,
            metrics: BTreeMap::new(),
            coverage_trackers: BTreeMap::new(),
            n_calibration: 0,
        }
    }

    /// Number of calibration observations accumulated (total across all metrics).
    #[must_use]
    pub fn calibration_samples(&self) -> usize {
        self.n_calibration
    }

    /// Whether a named metric has enough samples for prediction.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn is_metric_calibrated(&self, metric: &str) -> bool {
        self.metrics
            .get(metric)
            .is_some_and(|m| m.n() >= self.config.min_calibration_samples)
    }

    /// Add a calibration observation for a named metric.
    pub fn calibrate(&mut self, metric: &str, value: f64) {
        // Non-finite calibration values can poison quantile computation.
        // Ignore them so thresholds remain stable and deterministic.
        if !value.is_finite() {
            return;
        }

        let cal = self
            .metrics
            .entry(metric.to_string())
            .or_insert_with(MetricCalibration::new);

        cal.values.push(value);

        self.n_calibration += 1;
    }

    /// Check if a new observation exceeds the conformal threshold.
    ///
    /// Returns `None` if the metric is not yet calibrated.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn check(&self, metric: &str, value: f64) -> Option<ThresholdCheck> {
        let cal = self.metrics.get(metric)?;
        if cal.n() < self.config.min_calibration_samples {
            return None;
        }

        // Non-finite observations are always anomalous; report explicitly
        // without mutating calibration state.
        if !value.is_finite() {
            return Some(ThresholdCheck {
                metric: metric.to_string(),
                value,
                threshold: self.threshold(metric)?,
                conforming: false,
                nonconformity_score: f64::INFINITY,
                calibration_n: cal.n(),
                coverage_target: 1.0 - self.config.alpha,
            });
        }

        let (nonconformity_score, threshold) = match self.config.mode {
            ThresholdMode::Upper => {
                let score = value;
                let threshold = conformal_quantile(&cal.values, self.config.alpha);
                (score, threshold)
            }
            ThresholdMode::TwoSided => {
                // Recompute nonconformity scores from the current full median so
                // that both calibration and test scores use the same reference
                // point, preserving exchangeability for the conformal guarantee.
                let median = cal.median();
                let scores: Vec<f64> = cal.values.iter().map(|v| (v - median).abs()).collect();
                let score = (value - median).abs();
                let threshold = conformal_quantile(&scores, self.config.alpha);
                (score, threshold)
            }
        };

        let conforming = nonconformity_score <= threshold;

        Some(ThresholdCheck {
            metric: metric.to_string(),
            value,
            threshold,
            conforming,
            nonconformity_score,
            calibration_n: cal.n(),
            coverage_target: 1.0 - self.config.alpha,
        })
    }

    /// Check a metric and update coverage tracking.
    pub fn check_and_track(&mut self, metric: &str, value: f64) -> Option<ThresholdCheck> {
        let result = self.check(metric, value)?;

        let tracker = self
            .coverage_trackers
            .entry(metric.to_string())
            .or_insert_with(CoverageTracker::new);
        tracker.total += 1;
        if result.conforming {
            tracker.covered += 1;
        }

        Some(result)
    }

    /// Get the current adaptive threshold for a metric.
    ///
    /// Returns `None` if not yet calibrated.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn threshold(&self, metric: &str) -> Option<f64> {
        let cal = self.metrics.get(metric)?;
        if cal.n() < self.config.min_calibration_samples {
            return None;
        }

        match self.config.mode {
            ThresholdMode::Upper => Some(conformal_quantile(&cal.values, self.config.alpha)),
            ThresholdMode::TwoSided => {
                let median = cal.median();
                let scores: Vec<f64> = cal.values.iter().map(|v| (v - median).abs()).collect();
                Some(conformal_quantile(&scores, self.config.alpha))
            }
        }
    }

    /// Per-metric coverage rates from prediction tracking.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn coverage_rates(&self) -> BTreeMap<String, f64> {
        self.coverage_trackers
            .iter()
            .map(|(name, tracker)| (name.clone(), tracker.rate()))
            .collect()
    }

    /// Per-metric calibration sample counts.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn metric_counts(&self) -> BTreeMap<String, usize> {
        self.metrics
            .iter()
            .map(|(name, cal)| (name.clone(), cal.n()))
            .collect()
    }

    /// Check multiple metrics at once and return all results.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn check_all(&self, observations: &[(&str, f64)]) -> Vec<ThresholdCheck> {
        observations
            .iter()
            .filter_map(|(metric, value)| self.check(metric, *value))
            .collect()
    }

    /// Returns true if any checked metric is non-conforming.
    #[must_use]
    pub fn any_anomalous(&self, observations: &[(&str, f64)]) -> bool {
        observations
            .iter()
            .filter_map(|(metric, value)| self.check(metric, *value))
            .any(|r| !r.conforming)
    }
}

impl std::fmt::Display for ThresholdCheck {
    fn fmt(&self, f: &mut std::fmt::Formatter<'_>) -> std::fmt::Result {
        let status = if self.conforming { "OK" } else { "ANOMALOUS" };
        write!(
            f,
            "{}: value={:.4} threshold={:.4} [{}] (n={})",
            self.metric, self.value, self.threshold, status, self.calibration_n
        )
    }
}

#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
    use super::*;
    use crate::lab::OracleStats;

    fn make_clean_report(entities: usize, events: usize) -> OracleReport {
        OracleReport {
            entries: vec![OracleEntryReport {
                invariant: "test_oracle".to_string(),
                passed: true,
                violation: None,
                stats: OracleStats {
                    entities_tracked: entities,
                    events_recorded: events,
                },
            }],
            total: 1,
            passed: 1,
            failed: 0,
            check_time_nanos: 0,
        }
    }

    fn make_violated_report(entities: usize, events: usize) -> OracleReport {
        OracleReport {
            entries: vec![OracleEntryReport {
                invariant: "test_oracle".to_string(),
                passed: false,
                violation: Some("test violation".to_string()),
                stats: OracleStats {
                    entities_tracked: entities,
                    events_recorded: events,
                },
            }],
            total: 1,
            passed: 0,
            failed: 1,
            check_time_nanos: 0,
        }
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformal_quantile_empty() {
        assert!(conformal_quantile(&[], 0.05).is_infinite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformal_quantile_single() {
        let scores = [0.5];
        let q = conformal_quantile(&scores, 0.05);
        assert!((q - 0.5).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformal_quantile_sorted() {
        let scores = [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0];
        let q95 = conformal_quantile(&scores, 0.05);
        // (1-0.05)(10+1) = 10.45, ceil = 11, min(10)-1 = 9 => scores[9] = 1.0
        assert!((q95 - 1.0).abs() < f64::EPSILON);

        let q80 = conformal_quantile(&scores, 0.20);
        // (1-0.20)(10+1) = 8.8, ceil = 9, -1 = 8 => scores[8] = 0.9
        assert!((q80 - 0.9).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
    }

    #[test]
    fn calibrator_starts_uncalibrated() {
        let cal = ConformalCalibrator::default_calibrator();
        assert!(!cal.is_calibrated());
        assert_eq!(cal.calibration_samples(), 0);
    }

    #[test]
    fn calibrator_becomes_calibrated() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        for _ in 0..3 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }
        assert!(cal.is_calibrated());
        assert_eq!(cal.calibration_samples(), 3);
    }

    #[test]
    fn predict_returns_none_before_calibrated() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // First 4 reports: not yet calibrated.
        for _ in 0..4 {
            assert!(cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)).is_none());
        }
        // 5th: completes calibration, but returns None to avoid testing
        // the calibration-completing observation against a set that
        // includes it (exchangeability requirement).
        let report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        assert!(
            report.is_none(),
            "calibration-completing observation must be skipped"
        );

        // 6th: now truly post-calibration — returns a prediction.
        let report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        assert!(
            report.is_some(),
            "post-calibration observation should produce prediction"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn clean_observations_are_conforming() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with clean reports.
        for _ in 0..5 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        // New clean observation should be conforming.
        let report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
        assert_eq!(report.prediction_sets.len(), 1);
        assert!(
            report.prediction_sets[0].conforming,
            "clean observation should be conforming"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn violation_is_anomalous() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with clean reports.
        for _ in 0..10 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        // Violated observation should be anomalous.
        let report = cal.predict(&make_violated_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
        assert!(!report.prediction_sets[0].conforming);
    }

    #[test]
    fn coverage_tracking() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate.
        for _ in 0..5 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        // Predict multiple clean observations.
        for _ in 0..10 {
            let _ = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        let rates = cal.coverage_rates();
        let rate = rates.get("test_oracle").copied().unwrap_or(0.0);
        assert!(
            rate >= 0.8,
            "coverage rate should be high for clean data, got {rate:.2}"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn calibration_report_text_output() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        for _ in 0..5 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }
        let report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
        let text = report.to_text();

        assert!(text.contains("CONFORMAL CALIBRATION REPORT"));
        assert!(text.contains("95.0%"));
        assert!(text.contains("alpha=0.050"));
        assert!(text.contains("test_oracle"));
    }

    #[test]
    fn calibration_report_json_roundtrip() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        for _ in 0..5 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }
        let report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
        let json = report.to_json();

        assert!(json.is_object());
        assert_eq!(json["alpha"], 0.05);
        assert!(json["well_calibrated"].as_bool().unwrap());
        assert!(json["prediction_sets"].is_array());
    }

    #[test]
    fn well_calibrated_with_clean_data() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        for _ in 0..5 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        let mut last_report = None;
        for _ in 0..20 {
            last_report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }
        let report = last_report.unwrap();
        assert!(report.is_well_calibrated());
        assert!(report.miscalibrated_invariants().is_empty());
    }

    #[test]
    fn violation_rates_tracked() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.10).min_samples(2);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        cal.calibrate(&make_violated_report(10, 50));
        cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10, 50));

        let rates = cal.violation_rates();
        let rate = rates.get("test_oracle").copied().unwrap_or(0.0);
        assert!(
            (rate - 1.0 / 3.0).abs() < 0.01,
            "expected ~0.33 violation rate, got {rate:.3}"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformity_score_clean_is_low() {
        let cal = InvariantCalibration::new();
        let entry = OracleEntryReport {
            invariant: "test".to_string(),
            passed: true,
            violation: None,
            stats: OracleStats {
                entities_tracked: 10,
                events_recorded: 50,
            },
        };
        let score = conformity_score(&entry, &cal);
        assert!(score < 1.0, "clean score should be < 1.0, got {score}");
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformity_score_violation_is_high() {
        let cal = InvariantCalibration::new();
        let entry = OracleEntryReport {
            invariant: "test".to_string(),
            passed: false,
            violation: Some("leak".to_string()),
            stats: OracleStats {
                entities_tracked: 10,
                events_recorded: 50,
            },
        };
        let score = conformity_score(&entry, &cal);
        assert!(
            score >= 1.0,
            "violation score should be >= 1.0, got {score}"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn deterministic_calibration() {
        let run = || {
            let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(3);
            let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);
            for i in 0..5 {
                cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10 + i, 50 + i * 5));
            }
            cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50))
        };

        let r1 = run().unwrap();
        let r2 = run().unwrap();
        assert_eq!(r1.prediction_sets.len(), r2.prediction_sets.len());
        for (a, b) in r1.prediction_sets.iter().zip(r2.prediction_sets.iter()) {
            assert!((a.score - b.score).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
            assert!((a.threshold - b.threshold).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
            assert_eq!(a.conforming, b.conforming);
        }
    }

    // ========================================================================
    // HealthThresholdCalibrator tests
    // ========================================================================

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_uncalibrated_returns_none() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
        let cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);
        assert!(cal.check("queue_depth", 10.0).is_none());
        assert!(!cal.is_metric_calibrated("queue_depth"));
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_upper_normal_conforming() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with queue depths 1..=10.
        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("queue_depth", f64::from(i));
        }
        assert!(cal.is_metric_calibrated("queue_depth"));

        // A value within the calibration range should be conforming.
        let result = cal.check("queue_depth", 5.0).unwrap();
        assert!(result.conforming, "normal depth should be conforming");
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_upper_extreme_anomalous() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with small queue depths.
        for i in 1..=20 {
            cal.calibrate("queue_depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        // A value far above the calibration range should be anomalous.
        let result = cal.check("queue_depth", 1000.0).unwrap();
        assert!(
            !result.conforming,
            "extreme depth should be anomalous, got threshold={:.2}",
            result.threshold
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_two_sided_normal_conforming() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::TwoSided).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with values centered around 50.
        for v in [48.0, 50.0, 52.0, 49.0, 51.0, 50.0, 48.0, 52.0, 49.0, 51.0] {
            cal.calibrate("latency", v);
        }

        // A value near the median should be conforming.
        let result = cal.check("latency", 50.0).unwrap();
        assert!(result.conforming, "near-median value should be conforming");
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_two_sided_extreme_anomalous() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::TwoSided).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with values centered around 50.
        for v in [48.0, 50.0, 52.0, 49.0, 51.0, 50.0, 48.0, 52.0, 49.0, 51.0] {
            cal.calibrate("latency", v);
        }

        // A value far from the median should be anomalous.
        let result = cal.check("latency", 500.0).unwrap();
        assert!(
            !result.conforming,
            "far-from-median value should be anomalous"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_adaptive_grows_with_data() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Phase 1: calibrate with small values.
        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("metric", f64::from(i));
        }
        let t1 = cal.threshold("metric").unwrap();

        // Phase 2: add larger values.
        for i in 11..=20 {
            cal.calibrate("metric", f64::from(i));
        }
        let t2 = cal.threshold("metric").unwrap();

        assert!(
            t2 >= t1,
            "threshold should grow as calibration expands, t1={t1}, t2={t2}"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_coverage_tracking() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.10, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        for i in 1..=20 {
            cal.calibrate("depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        // Check several normal values.
        for i in 1..=10 {
            let _ = cal.check_and_track("depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        let rates = cal.coverage_rates();
        let rate = rates.get("depth").copied().unwrap_or(0.0);
        assert!(
            rate >= 0.8,
            "coverage rate for normal data should be high, got {rate:.2}"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_multiple_metrics() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("queue_depth", f64::from(i));
            cal.calibrate("restart_rate", f64::from(i) * 0.01);
        }

        assert!(cal.is_metric_calibrated("queue_depth"));
        assert!(cal.is_metric_calibrated("restart_rate"));

        let results = cal.check_all(&[("queue_depth", 5.0), ("restart_rate", 0.05)]);
        assert_eq!(results.len(), 2);
        assert!(results.iter().all(|r| r.conforming));
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_any_anomalous() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("queue_depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        assert!(!cal.any_anomalous(&[("queue_depth", 5.0)]));
        assert!(cal.any_anomalous(&[("queue_depth", 10000.0)]));
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_display() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("queue_depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        let result = cal.check("queue_depth", 5.0).unwrap();
        let display = format!("{result}");
        assert!(display.contains("queue_depth"));
        assert!(display.contains("OK") || display.contains("ANOMALOUS"));
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_deterministic() {
        let run = || {
            let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
            let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);
            for i in 1..=10 {
                cal.calibrate("m", f64::from(i));
            }
            cal.check("m", 7.5).unwrap()
        };

        let r1 = run();
        let r2 = run();
        assert!((r1.threshold - r2.threshold).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
        assert!((r1.nonconformity_score - r2.nonconformity_score).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
        assert_eq!(r1.conforming, r2.conforming);
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_ignores_non_finite_calibration_values() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("metric", f64::from(i));
        }
        cal.calibrate("metric", f64::NAN);
        cal.calibrate("metric", f64::INFINITY);
        cal.calibrate("metric", f64::NEG_INFINITY);

        let counts = cal.metric_counts();
        assert_eq!(counts.get("metric"), Some(&10));
        let threshold = cal
            .threshold("metric")
            .expect("metric should be calibrated");
        assert!(threshold.is_finite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_non_finite_check_is_anomalous() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);
        for i in 1..=10 {
            cal.calibrate("metric", f64::from(i));
        }

        let result = cal
            .check("metric", f64::NAN)
            .expect("metric should be calibrated");
        assert!(!result.conforming);
        assert!(result.nonconformity_score.is_infinite());
        assert!(result.threshold.is_finite());
    }

    #[test]
    fn health_threshold_metric_counts() {
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(3);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        cal.calibrate("a", 1.0);
        cal.calibrate("a", 2.0);
        cal.calibrate("b", 10.0);

        let counts = cal.metric_counts();
        assert_eq!(counts.get("a"), Some(&2));
        assert_eq!(counts.get("b"), Some(&1));
    }

    // ========================================================================
    // Deterministic observability: conformal coverage diagnostics (bd-npn8e)
    // ========================================================================

    #[test]
    fn obs_conformal_coverage_guarantee_holds() {
        // Verify the finite-sample coverage guarantee:
        // P(new observation conforming) ≥ 1 - alpha under exchangeability.
        let alpha = 0.10;
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(alpha).min_samples(10);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with clean reports (10 samples).
        for i in 0..10 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10 + i, 50 + i * 3));
        }

        // Predict on 100 clean observations. Coverage should be ≥ (1 - alpha).
        let mut conforming_count = 0;
        let total = 100;
        for _ in 0..total {
            if let Some(report) = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)) {
                if report.prediction_sets.iter().all(|ps| ps.conforming) {
                    conforming_count += 1;
                }
            }
        }

        let coverage = f64::from(conforming_count) / f64::from(total);
        assert!(
            coverage >= 1.0 - alpha - 0.05,
            "coverage {coverage:.2} should be ≥ {:.2}",
            1.0 - alpha - 0.05
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn obs_health_threshold_coverage_guarantee_holds() {
        let alpha = 0.10;
        let config = HealthThresholdConfig::new(alpha, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(20);
        let mut cal = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate with values 1..=20.
        for i in 1..=20 {
            cal.calibrate("depth", f64::from(i));
        }

        // Check 50 values within the calibration range.
        let mut conforming = 0;
        let total = 50;
        for i in 0..total {
            let value = f64::from((i % 20) + 1);
            if let Some(result) = cal.check("depth", value) {
                if result.conforming {
                    conforming += 1;
                }
            }
        }

        let coverage = f64::from(conforming) / f64::from(total);
        assert!(
            coverage >= 1.0 - alpha - 0.05,
            "health threshold coverage {coverage:.2} should be ≥ {:.2}",
            1.0 - alpha - 0.05
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn obs_conformal_anomaly_detection_deterministic() {
        // Same calibration + prediction sequence must produce identical results.
        let run = || {
            let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(5);
            let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

            for i in 0..8 {
                cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10 + i, 50 + i * 3));
            }

            let clean = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
            let anomalous = cal.predict(&make_violated_report(10, 50)).unwrap();
            (clean, anomalous)
        };

        let (c1, a1) = run();
        let (c2, a2) = run();

        // Clean predictions must be identical.
        assert_eq!(c1.prediction_sets.len(), c2.prediction_sets.len());
        for (p1, p2) in c1.prediction_sets.iter().zip(c2.prediction_sets.iter()) {
            assert!((p1.score - p2.score).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
            assert!((p1.threshold - p2.threshold).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
            assert_eq!(p1.conforming, p2.conforming);
        }

        // Anomalous predictions must be identical.
        assert_eq!(a1.prediction_sets.len(), a2.prediction_sets.len());
        for (p1, p2) in a1.prediction_sets.iter().zip(a2.prediction_sets.iter()) {
            assert!((p1.score - p2.score).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
            assert_eq!(p1.conforming, p2.conforming);
        }
    }

    #[test]
    fn obs_conformal_report_well_calibrated_diagnostics() {
        let config = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(5);
        let mut cal = ConformalCalibrator::new(config);

        // Calibrate.
        for i in 0..10 {
            cal.calibrate(&make_clean_report(10 + i, 50 + i * 2));
        }

        // Predict many clean observations.
        let mut last_report = None;
        for _ in 0..30 {
            last_report = cal.predict(&make_clean_report(10, 50));
        }

        let report = last_report.unwrap();

        // Should be well-calibrated.
        assert!(report.is_well_calibrated());
        assert!(report.miscalibrated_invariants().is_empty());

        // Report text should contain expected fields.
        let text = report.to_text();
        assert!(text.contains("CONFORMAL CALIBRATION REPORT"));
        assert!(text.contains("WELL-CALIBRATED"));

        // JSON roundtrip.
        let json = report.to_json();
        assert!(json["well_calibrated"].as_bool().unwrap());
        assert_eq!(json["alpha"], 0.05);
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformal_config_debug_clone_default() {
        let c = ConformalConfig::default();
        let dbg = format!("{c:?}");
        assert!(dbg.contains("ConformalConfig"));

        let c2 = c;
        assert!((c2.alpha - 0.05).abs() < f64::EPSILON);
        assert_eq!(c2.min_calibration_samples, 5);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "alpha must be finite and in (0, 1)")]
    fn conformal_config_rejects_invalid_alpha() {
        let _ = ConformalConfig::new(1.0);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "min_calibration_samples must be > 0")]
    fn conformal_calibrator_rejects_zero_min_samples() {
        let mut cfg = ConformalConfig::new(0.05);
        cfg.min_calibration_samples = 0;
        let _ = ConformalCalibrator::new(cfg);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "min_calibration_samples must be > 0")]
    fn conformal_config_builder_rejects_zero_min_samples() {
        let _ = ConformalConfig::new(0.05).min_samples(0);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "alpha must be finite and in (0, 1)")]
    fn health_threshold_config_rejects_invalid_alpha() {
        let _ = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.0, ThresholdMode::Upper);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "min_calibration_samples must be > 0")]
    fn health_threshold_calibrator_rejects_zero_min_samples() {
        let mut cfg = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper);
        cfg.min_calibration_samples = 0;
        let _ = HealthThresholdCalibrator::new(cfg);
    }

    #[test]
    #[should_panic(expected = "min_calibration_samples must be > 0")]
    fn health_threshold_config_builder_rejects_zero_min_samples() {
        let _ = HealthThresholdConfig::new(0.05, ThresholdMode::Upper).min_samples(0);
    }

    #[test]
    fn conformity_score_debug_clone_copy_eq() {
        let s = ConformityScore {
            value: 0.42,
            violated: false,
        };
        let dbg = format!("{s:?}");
        assert!(dbg.contains("ConformityScore"));

        let s2 = s;
        assert_eq!(s, s2);

        // Copy
        let s3 = s;
        assert_eq!(s, s3);
    }

    #[test]
    fn threshold_mode_debug_clone_copy_eq() {
        let m = ThresholdMode::Upper;
        let dbg = format!("{m:?}");
        assert!(dbg.contains("Upper"));

        let m2 = m;
        assert_eq!(m, m2);

        let m3 = m;
        assert_eq!(m, m3);

        assert_ne!(ThresholdMode::Upper, ThresholdMode::TwoSided);
    }

    #[test]
    fn coverage_tracker_debug_clone() {
        let t = CoverageTracker {
            total: 10,
            covered: 9,
        };
        let dbg = format!("{t:?}");
        assert!(dbg.contains("CoverageTracker"));

        let t2 = t;
        assert_eq!(t2.total, 10);
        assert_eq!(t2.covered, 9);
    }
}