Module claims 

Claims ledger — the prescience track record as a first-class store.

Ports the v26 temporal_db semantics (1 week of verified lead = 1 point, timestamped source + public validation event required) onto the v5 substrate, alongside the existing [CalibrationStore] Brier machinery.

A claim is a dated, falsifiable prediction. It is recorded with a source date and a falsification criterion; it is resolved against a validation event (validated or falsified). Validated claims earn points equal to the verified lead time in weeks. The ledger always reports the falsified count alongside the score — the honesty infrastructure is part of the store, not an afterthought (v26’s 0-falsified / overconfidence lesson).

Structs

Claim

A single dated, falsifiable prediction.

ClaimCalibration

Calibration of the resolved claims — the prescience track record’s honesty statement. Computed over validated + falsified claims.

ClaimsLedger

The claims ledger — persistable via to_json / from_json, like the calibration store.

ValidationEvent

A dated validation (or falsification) event.

Enums

ClaimStatus

Status of a claim.

Constants

CALIBRATION_PRIOR_SAMPLES

Prior-strength constant for the empirical-Bayes confidence shrinkage.

Functions

wilson95

Wilson score 95% confidence interval for a binomial rate.