Module confidence 

Bayesian confidence model for relationship edges.

Uses Beta-Binomial conjugate prior with pseudocount 10. Confidence moves slowly per observation but accumulates with repeated evidence.

Enums

ExtractionContext

How a relationship was established — determines initial confidence prior.

Constants

DECAY_FLOOR

Minimum effective confidence floor — decay never goes below this.

DEFAULT_HALF_LIFE_DAYS

Default half-life for temporal decay (days). At 90 days without reinforcement, effective confidence halves.

Functions

bayesian_update

Bayesian update using Beta-Binomial conjugate prior.

effective_confidence

Compute effective confidence for a relationship, using last_reinforced or valid_from as anchor.

path_confidence

Compound confidence along a multi-hop path.

temporal_decay

Compute effective confidence after temporal decay.