Function should_release_bump 

pub fn should_release_bump(status: RunStatus) -> bool

Does this run’s final status mean the merge this call is downstream of actually happened?

All three of land’s success paths converge on the same signal before crate::graph ever calls into this module: a pull request already merged underneath magi (land::Step::Done { merged: true }), land::Step::Merge’s own gh pr merge succeeding, and the [land::merged_after_all] recovery for a non-zero exit that merged anyway. Every one of them ends land::land with pr.state == PrLifecycle::Merged, which is exactly what graph::Runner::merge reads to set RunStatus::Merged on the run - see the all_three_merge_paths_* tests below for each path’s own evidence. Every path that does not land (a close, Step::GiveUp, an unanswered land_approval, or a gh pr merge failure the forge does not confirm) leaves the run Blocked instead, so this one check is the whole gate a caller needs.