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Event derivation — the “story” layer.
Two-tier honesty contract (non-negotiable, see docs/research/04-synthesis.md §5 risk 2):
Confidence::Factevents assert observed state transitions plainly (throttle bit set, process exited). They carry the raw evidence that produced them.Confidence::Likelyevents are inferences (extrapolated OOM ETA, suspected dataloader stall) and must always read as hedged.