Crate chump_belief_state 

Belief state module: maintains per-tool confidence and task-level uncertainty, updated each turn via Bayesian beta-distribution updates.

Implements the proactive uncertainty awareness from Active Inference (Section 2.1 of CHUMP_TO_COMPLEX.md). The belief state drives Expected Free Energy scoring and epistemic escalation.

Part of the Synthetic Consciousness Framework, Section 2.

Structs

EFEScore

Expected Free Energy components for a candidate tool call.

TaskBelief

Task-level belief state: overall confidence in the current task trajectory.

ToolBelief

Per-tool reliability belief, modeled as a Beta(alpha, beta) distribution. Alpha = successes + 1 prior, Beta = failures + 1 prior.

Functions

belief_state_enabled

Returns false when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1 (or true).

context_summary

Format belief state summary for context injection. Returns an empty string when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1 (no injection).

decay_turn

Decay task freshness (call once per turn). No-op when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1.

metrics_json

JSON metrics for the health endpoint.

nudge_trajectory

Adjust trajectory confidence by a delta (positive = increase, negative = decrease). Used by the perception layer to lower confidence when input is highly ambiguous. No-op when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1.

restore_from_snapshot

Restore belief state from a snapshot (used by speculative execution rollback).

score_tools

Score a set of candidate tools by Expected Free Energy. Returns scores sorted by G ascending (lowest G = best choice).

score_tools_except

Score all known tools except excluded, sorted by EFE ascending (best first).

should_escalate_epistemic

Should the agent escalate to the human due to epistemic uncertainty? Returns false (no escalation) when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1. Otherwise returns true when task uncertainty is very high (> threshold).

snapshot_inner

Snapshot the full inner state for speculative execution forking.

task_belief

Get the current task belief state.

tool_belief

Get belief for a specific tool.

tool_reliability

Reliability of a single tool from the Beta mean. Returns 0.5 (prior) if unknown.

update_tool_belief

Record a tool call outcome and update beliefs. No-op when CHUMP_BYPASS_BELIEF_STATE=1.