car_inference/

outcome.rs

//! Outcome tracking — learn from inference results to improve routing.
//!
//! Two observation channels:
//! 1. **Conversation signals** — implicit feedback from what happens after an inference
//!    call (user moved on = accepted, user corrected = rejected, re-asked = rejected).
//! 2. **Git-diff tracking** — for code generation, compare suggestions to actual commits
//!    (ground truth, no classification model needed).
//!
//! Every inference call produces an `InferenceOutcome`. Outcomes accumulate into
//! `ModelProfile`s with per-task statistics. The adaptive router uses profiles
//! to make data-driven model selection.

use std::collections::{HashMap, HashSet};
use std::time::{SystemTime, UNIX_EPOCH};

use serde::{Deserialize, Serialize};

/// Task type for outcome tracking. Maps to ModelCapability but at the call level.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq, Eq, Hash, Serialize, Deserialize)]
#[serde(rename_all = "snake_case")]
pub enum InferenceTask {
    Generate,
    Embed,
    Classify,
    Code,
    Reasoning,
}

impl std::fmt::Display for InferenceTask {
    fn fmt(&self, f: &mut std::fmt::Formatter<'_>) -> std::fmt::Result {
        match self {
            InferenceTask::Generate => write!(f, "generate"),
            InferenceTask::Embed => write!(f, "embed"),
            InferenceTask::Classify => write!(f, "classify"),
            InferenceTask::Code => write!(f, "code"),
            InferenceTask::Reasoning => write!(f, "reasoning"),
        }
    }
}

/// A single inference invocation record.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct InferenceOutcome {
    /// Unique trace ID for this invocation.
    pub trace_id: String,
    /// Model that was used.
    pub model_id: String,
    /// Task type.
    pub task: InferenceTask,
    /// How the model was selected.
    pub routing_reason: String,
    /// Wall-clock latency in milliseconds.
    pub latency_ms: u64,
    /// Input tokens (estimated). For a prompt-cached provider this is the
    /// *uncached* prefix only; the cached portion is split out below.
    pub input_tokens: usize,
    /// Output tokens (estimated).
    pub output_tokens: usize,
    /// Prompt-cache hit input tokens (Anthropic `cache_read_input_tokens`),
    /// billed at ~0.1× base input. `0` for uncached / non-caching providers.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub cache_read_input_tokens: usize,
    /// Prompt-cache write input tokens (Anthropic `cache_creation_input_tokens`),
    /// billed at ~1.25×/2× base input. `0` for uncached / non-caching providers.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub cache_creation_input_tokens: usize,
    /// Outcome from conversation signal inference.
    pub inferred_outcome: Option<InferredOutcome>,
    /// Outcome from git-diff tracking (code only).
    pub code_outcome: Option<CodeOutcome>,
    /// Error message if inference failed.
    pub error: Option<String>,
    /// Unix timestamp.
    pub timestamp: u64,
    /// Whether a *mechanical* success has already been credited to the
    /// model profile for this call (booked at completion when it produced
    /// output with no error — see [`OutcomeTracker::record_complete`]).
    /// Guards against the later pending-sweep or a downstream quality
    /// signal double-counting the same call. In-memory only (`pending` is
    /// never persisted), so it's skipped from (de)serialization.
    #[serde(skip)]
    pub success_credited: bool,
}

/// Outcome inferred from conversation flow (implicit feedback).
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
#[serde(tag = "type", rename_all = "snake_case")]
pub enum InferredOutcome {
    /// User moved on, built on the response.
    Accepted { confidence: f64 },
    /// User used the result but modified it.
    AcceptedWithEdits { confidence: f64 },
    /// User corrected, re-asked, or explicitly rejected.
    Rejected { confidence: f64 },
    /// No follow-up signal (session ended, inconclusive).
    Inconclusive,
}

impl InferredOutcome {
    /// Convert to a quality score (0.0 = bad, 1.0 = good).
    pub fn quality_score(&self) -> Option<f64> {
        match self {
            InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence } => Some(*confidence),
            InferredOutcome::AcceptedWithEdits { confidence } => Some(confidence * 0.7),
            InferredOutcome::Rejected { confidence } => Some((1.0 - confidence) * 0.3),
            InferredOutcome::Inconclusive => None,
        }
    }

    pub fn is_success(&self) -> Option<bool> {
        match self {
            InferredOutcome::Accepted { .. } => Some(true),
            InferredOutcome::AcceptedWithEdits { .. } => Some(true),
            InferredOutcome::Rejected { .. } => Some(false),
            InferredOutcome::Inconclusive => None,
        }
    }
}

/// Outcome from git-diff comparison (code generation ground truth).
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
#[serde(tag = "type", rename_all = "snake_case")]
pub enum CodeOutcome {
    /// Suggestion was applied as-is (exact or near-exact match in diff).
    Applied,
    /// User changed the same file but differently (partial adoption).
    Modified,
    /// File unchanged despite suggestion (rejected / not used).
    Ignored,
    /// AST structural diff: signature was changed (breaking change).
    SignatureChanged,
    /// AST structural diff: body was modified but signature preserved (non-breaking).
    BodyModified,
    /// AST structural diff: new symbol was added.
    SymbolAdded,
}

impl CodeOutcome {
    pub fn quality_score(&self) -> f64 {
        match self {
            CodeOutcome::Applied => 1.0,
            CodeOutcome::SignatureChanged => 0.8,
            CodeOutcome::BodyModified => 0.7,
            CodeOutcome::SymbolAdded => 0.7,
            CodeOutcome::Modified => 0.6,
            CodeOutcome::Ignored => 0.1,
        }
    }

    pub fn is_success(&self) -> bool {
        !matches!(self, CodeOutcome::Ignored)
    }
}

/// Backfill `quality_observations` for a profile hydrated from a pre-upgrade
/// snapshot (where the field deserializes to 0). Failures are always graded,
/// so `fail_count` is a safe lower bound on how many observations moved the
/// EMA — using it preserves learned distrust across the upgrade. Only fills
/// when the count is still 0, so profiles written by this version are untouched.
fn backfill_quality_observations(p: &mut ModelProfile) {
    if p.quality_observations == 0 && p.fail_count > 0 {
        p.quality_observations = p.fail_count;
    }
    for ts in p.task_stats.values_mut() {
        if ts.quality_observations == 0 && ts.failures > 0 {
            ts.quality_observations = ts.failures;
        }
    }
}

/// Per-task statistics within a model profile.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Default, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct TaskStats {
    pub calls: u64,
    pub successes: u64,
    pub failures: u64,
    /// Running average latency in ms.
    pub avg_latency_ms: f64,
    /// Exponential moving average of quality score.
    pub ema_quality: f64,
    /// Number of benchmark cases behind `ema_quality` when it is a *seeded
    /// cold-start prior* (i.e. `calls == 0`). Lets the router shrink the
    /// seeded score toward its schema estimate by sample size. `0` means no
    /// benchmark evidence — the router then sits at the schema estimate.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub prior_sample_size: usize,
    /// Number of *graded* quality observations that have moved `ema_quality`
    /// for this task — accept/edit/reject signals and failures, NOT mechanical
    /// successes (which leave answer quality unknown). The router trusts
    /// `ema_quality` in proportion to this count, so a task with many ungraded
    /// successes stays anchored to its schema estimate instead of a hollow
    /// neutral EMA.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub quality_observations: u64,
}

impl TaskStats {
    pub fn success_rate(&self) -> f64 {
        let total = self.successes + self.failures;
        if total == 0 {
            return 0.5;
        } // prior: assume neutral
        self.successes as f64 / total as f64
    }
}

/// Per-model performance profile, built from observed outcomes.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct ModelProfile {
    pub model_id: String,
    pub total_calls: u64,
    pub success_count: u64,
    pub fail_count: u64,
    pub total_latency_ms: u64,
    /// Total estimated input tokens across all calls. For prompt-cached
    /// providers this is the *uncached* prefix only; cached tokens are in
    /// the two fields below so each bucket can be priced at its own rate.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub total_input_tokens: u64,
    /// Total estimated output tokens across all calls.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub total_output_tokens: u64,
    /// Total prompt-cache *read* (hit) input tokens — billed at ~0.1× input.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub total_cache_read_input_tokens: u64,
    /// Total prompt-cache *write* input tokens — billed at ~1.25×/2× input.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub total_cache_creation_input_tokens: u64,
    /// Per-task statistics.
    pub task_stats: HashMap<String, TaskStats>,
    /// Overall EMA quality score (0.0 - 1.0).
    pub ema_quality: f64,
    /// Number of benchmark cases behind `ema_quality` when it is a *seeded
    /// cold-start prior* (`total_calls == 0`). See `TaskStats::prior_sample_size`.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub prior_sample_size: usize,
    /// Graded quality observations that have moved `ema_quality` (overall).
    /// See `TaskStats::quality_observations`.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub quality_observations: u64,
    /// Derived metric: quality per 1K total tokens. Populated on export
    /// (not on every update) so it always reflects the latest snapshot.
    /// Inspired by Meta-Harness: context-token efficiency is a first-class
    /// optimization target, so it needs to be visible in model_stats.
    #[serde(default)]
    pub quality_per_1k_tokens: f64,
    /// Last updated (unix timestamp).
    pub updated_at: u64,
}

impl ModelProfile {
    pub fn new(model_id: String) -> Self {
        Self {
            model_id,
            total_calls: 0,
            success_count: 0,
            fail_count: 0,
            total_latency_ms: 0,
            total_input_tokens: 0,
            total_output_tokens: 0,
            total_cache_read_input_tokens: 0,
            total_cache_creation_input_tokens: 0,
            task_stats: HashMap::new(),
            ema_quality: 0.5, // neutral prior
            prior_sample_size: 0,
            quality_observations: 0,
            quality_per_1k_tokens: 0.0,
            updated_at: now_unix(),
        }
    }

    /// Success rate over *resolved* outcomes, or `None` when nothing has
    /// resolved yet. Returns `None` rather than a fabricated 0.5 so callers
    /// (all of which are display/reporting surfaces) can render "no resolved
    /// signal" instead of a misleading confident "50%" for a never-measured
    /// model. The router does NOT use this — its Thompson sampler reads the
    /// raw `success_count`/`fail_count` and blends its own schema-derived
    /// Beta prior (`adaptive_router`), so no 0.5 floor belongs here. Mirrors
    /// `LaneUsage::success_rate`'s Option semantics.
    pub fn success_rate_resolved(&self) -> Option<f64> {
        let resolved = self.success_count + self.fail_count;
        if resolved == 0 {
            None
        } else {
            Some(self.success_count as f64 / resolved as f64)
        }
    }

    pub fn avg_latency_ms(&self) -> f64 {
        if self.total_calls == 0 {
            return 0.0;
        }
        self.total_latency_ms as f64 / self.total_calls as f64
    }

    /// Same degradation pattern as SkillStats: fail_count > success_count + threshold.
    pub fn should_degrade(&self, threshold: u64) -> bool {
        self.fail_count > self.success_count + threshold
    }

    /// Get stats for a specific task type.
    pub fn task_stats(&self, task: InferenceTask) -> Option<&TaskStats> {
        self.task_stats.get(&task.to_string())
    }

    /// Total tokens observed across all calls (all input buckets + output).
    /// Includes prompt-cache read and write tokens — they are real tokens the
    /// provider processed, so price-free token efficiency must count them.
    pub fn total_tokens(&self) -> u64 {
        self.total_input_tokens
            + self.total_cache_read_input_tokens
            + self.total_cache_creation_input_tokens
            + self.total_output_tokens
    }

    /// Quality per 1000 tokens: `ema_quality * 1000 / total_tokens`.
    /// Returns 0.0 before any tokens have been observed.
    pub fn compute_quality_per_1k_tokens(&self) -> f64 {
        let total = self.total_tokens();
        if total == 0 {
            return 0.0;
        }
        self.ema_quality * 1000.0 / total as f64
    }

    /// Tokens spent per *successful* outcome: total tokens ÷ successes. `None`
    /// before any success has resolved. This is PRICE-FREE token efficiency —
    /// NOT dollar cost-per-outcome: a $0.10/Mtok and a $10/Mtok model with equal
    /// token counts score identically here. For the dollar metric the
    /// outcome-scoreboard vision wants, use [`Self::usd_per_success`] with the
    /// model's catalog prices. Pairs with [`Self::success_rate_resolved`].
    pub fn tokens_per_success(&self) -> Option<f64> {
        if self.success_count == 0 {
            None
        } else {
            Some(self.total_tokens() as f64 / self.success_count as f64)
        }
    }

    /// Dollar cost per *successful* outcome — the honest "cost-per-outcome":
    /// input+output token spend priced at the model's catalog rates, divided by
    /// successes. `None` before any success. Prices are USD per 1M tokens
    /// (from the catalog/registry `cost`), supplied by the caller so the tracker
    /// stays catalog-free. This is the metric the scoreboard should lead with —
    /// "cry once" is only legible in dollars-per-outcome, not tokens.
    pub fn usd_per_success(
        &self,
        input_per_mtok: f64,
        output_per_mtok: f64,
        cache: CacheRates,
    ) -> Option<f64> {
        if self.success_count == 0 {
            return None;
        }
        let usd = priced_input_usd(
            self.total_input_tokens,
            self.total_cache_read_input_tokens,
            self.total_cache_creation_input_tokens,
            input_per_mtok,
            cache,
        ) + self.total_output_tokens as f64 * output_per_mtok / 1_000_000.0;
        Some(usd / self.success_count as f64)
    }
}

/// Per-provider prompt-cache economics, expressed relative to the base input
/// rate. The providers differ structurally: Anthropic uses explicit
/// breakpoints with a deep read discount and a write premium; OpenAI caches
/// automatically with a shallower read discount and no write charge. The
/// durable ledger is catalog-free, so the caller derives these from the model
/// schema's protocol (see [`crate::schema::ApiProtocol::cache_rates`]) and
/// passes them in alongside the per-token prices.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy, PartialEq)]
pub struct CacheRates {
    /// Cached-read (hit) price ÷ base input. Anthropic ~0.1×, OpenAI ~0.5×.
    pub read_mult: f64,
    /// Cache-write price ÷ base input. Anthropic ~1.25× (5-minute TTL; 1-hour
    /// is 2× but the ledger doesn't record which TTL, so writes bill at 1.25×
    /// — exact for the default path, a conservative under-estimate for 1-hour).
    /// OpenAI has no write charge (`0`) and reports no write tokens.
    pub write_mult: f64,
}

impl CacheRates {
    /// Anthropic / Bedrock-Claude: deep read discount + write premium.
    pub const ANTHROPIC: Self = Self {
        read_mult: 0.1,
        write_mult: 1.25,
    };
    /// OpenAI (incl. Azure OpenAI): automatic caching, ~0.5× read, no write.
    pub const OPENAI: Self = Self {
        read_mult: 0.5,
        write_mult: 0.0,
    };
    /// Providers without parsed prompt caching (Google/Vertex, local). Their
    /// cache token counts are always zero, so the multipliers are never
    /// exercised — this is just an honest, inert default.
    pub const NONE: Self = Self {
        read_mult: 0.0,
        write_mult: 0.0,
    };
}

impl Default for CacheRates {
    /// Anthropic was the first (and write-bucket-bearing) provider; defaulting
    /// here keeps a missing-rates path conservative rather than free.
    fn default() -> Self {
        Self::ANTHROPIC
    }
}

/// USD cost of the three input buckets (uncached prefix, cache read, cache
/// write), each priced off the same base `input_per_mtok` rate with the
/// provider's [`CacheRates`] applied. Shared by [`ModelProfile::usd_per_success`]
/// and the durable [`crate::scoreboard::Scoreboard`] so both price caching the
/// same way.
pub fn priced_input_usd(
    uncached_input_tokens: u64,
    cache_read_input_tokens: u64,
    cache_creation_input_tokens: u64,
    input_per_mtok: f64,
    cache: CacheRates,
) -> f64 {
    (uncached_input_tokens as f64 * input_per_mtok
        + cache_read_input_tokens as f64 * input_per_mtok * cache.read_mult
        + cache_creation_input_tokens as f64 * input_per_mtok * cache.write_mult)
        / 1_000_000.0
}

/// EMA smoothing factor. Higher = more weight on recent observations.
const EMA_ALPHA: f64 = 0.2;

/// One resolved inference outcome — the durable, attributable "receipt"
/// the concierge quotes ("routed to X at T because Y; latency 1.2s;
/// outcome success q=0.9"). Append-only; one JSON line per resolution.
/// Deliberately flat (success/quality/error pulled out of the richer
/// `InferenceOutcome`) so it's stable to read back and cheap to reason
/// over. Carries no prompt/output text — only routing-adjacent metadata.
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Serialize, Deserialize)]
pub struct OutcomeLedgerEntry {
    pub trace_id: String,
    pub model_id: String,
    pub task: InferenceTask,
    pub routing_reason: String,
    pub latency_ms: u64,
    pub input_tokens: usize,
    pub output_tokens: usize,
    /// Prompt-cache read (hit) input tokens, billed at ~0.1× input. Defaults
    /// to 0 so receipts written before caching telemetry existed read back
    /// (and price) as fully-uncached.
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "is_zero_usize")]
    pub cache_read_input_tokens: usize,
    /// Prompt-cache write input tokens, billed at ~1.25×/2× input.
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "is_zero_usize")]
    pub cache_creation_input_tokens: usize,
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
    pub success: Option<bool>,
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
    pub quality: Option<f64>,
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
    pub error: Option<String>,
    /// Project/workspace the call belonged to — the key B1 groups paired
    /// comparisons on. `None` until the capture path threads it (B1); kept
    /// in the schema now so today's receipts are forward-compatible.
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
    pub project_id: Option<String>,
    /// Intent/use-case lane (finer than `task`), if the router computed
    /// one. `None` until threaded (B1).
    #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if = "Option::is_none")]
    pub intent: Option<String>,
    pub timestamp: u64,
}

/// Serde skip helper: keep the cache-token fields out of receipts that never
/// touched the cache, so the durable ledger stays byte-identical to its
/// pre-caching shape for the common (uncached) case.
fn is_zero_usize(n: &usize) -> bool {
    *n == 0
}

/// Cap on the in-memory ledger buffer between flushes — backstop against
/// unbounded growth if the flush timer never runs. Oldest entries drop.
const MAX_LEDGER_BUFFER: usize = 5000;

/// Max characters of an error string kept in a ledger receipt. Errors are
/// useful signal ("429", "context overflow") but can echo provider text
/// or paths — cap the length so the privacy-bounded ledger never grows a
/// large/sensitive blob. The classification lives in the prefix.
const MAX_LEDGER_ERROR_CHARS: usize = 256;

/// Truncate an error to [`MAX_LEDGER_ERROR_CHARS`] on a char boundary.
fn redact_error(error: &str) -> String {
    if error.chars().count() <= MAX_LEDGER_ERROR_CHARS {
        return error.to_string();
    }
    let truncated: String = error.chars().take(MAX_LEDGER_ERROR_CHARS).collect();
    format!("{truncated}…")
}

/// Classify an inference error as a **no-answer failure** — the call never
/// produced an answer to grade — rather than a *generation* failure (the model
/// returned content that was judged bad). Two families qualify:
///   - transport/infrastructure: read timeout, connection reset, 5xx, EOF,
///     overload.
///   - auth/client rejection: 401/403/400/404, bad API key, `invalid_client`.
///     The request was refused before any tokens were generated.
///
/// Such a call carries NO information about the model's *answer* quality — like a
/// *mechanical* success, it leaves quality unknown — so it must not move the
/// quality EMA. Counting these toward quality silently buries a good-but-slow,
/// transiently-unreachable, or merely *mis-authenticated* model: observed live
/// as `parslee/*` collapsing to `ema_quality ≈ 0.003` (from read-timeouts AND
/// ~47 `HTTP 401 Unauthorized` from an undeployed gateway), which then
/// deprioritized it under every workload. (Rate-limit / 429 is handled
/// separately as a harsher *availability* penalty, not a quality one.)
///
/// This is the principled cut: a failure is answer-quality evidence ONLY when
/// the model actually produced an answer. Auth/HTTP/transport rejections didn't,
/// so the default for them is quality-neutral. We match on unambiguous textual
/// forms, NOT bare status numbers (a bare "400"/"500" substring matches
/// "1500ms", "tokens: 400", etc.) — a status-only error with no recognizable
/// phrase falls through to the generation-failure path, which is the safe
/// direction (it can only over-penalize a model that *did* answer, never
/// silently bury one that didn't).
fn is_no_answer_failure(error: &str) -> bool {
    let e = error.to_ascii_lowercase();
    const NEEDLES: &[&str] = &[
        // --- transport / infrastructure (no answer produced) ---
        "timeout",
        "timed out",
        "deadline",
        "connection",
        "connect error",
        "reset by peer",
        "broken pipe",
        "network",
        "unreachable",
        "eof",
        "stream closed",
        "socket",
        "503",
        "502",
        "504",
        // A 500 is a server-side fault that almost always produced no answer,
        // but bare "500" is too broad a substring (it matches "1500ms",
        // "tokens: 500", a 500-dim error, …), so we match only its unambiguous
        // textual form. A status-only "HTTP 500" with no body stays classified
        // as a generation failure — accept that edge rather than risk
        // false-positive hits on coincidental "500" substrings.
        "internal server error",
        "service unavailable",
        "temporarily unavailable",
        "overloaded",
        // --- auth / client rejection (request refused, no answer produced) ---
        // Same bare-number caution as 5xx: match textual forms, not "401"/"400".
        // Kept HIGH-PRECISION: only phrases that unambiguously mean "the request
        // was refused before generation." Deliberately NOT "not found" (matches a
        // generation/parse error like "field not found") or "invalid token"
        // (collides with tokenizer errors) — a rare 404 mis-scored as a bad
        // answer is the safe direction; silently burying an auth-blocked model is
        // not.
        "unauthorized",
        "unauthenticated",
        "forbidden",
        "permission denied",
        "authentication",
        "invalid_client",
        "invalid api key",
        "bad request",
    ];
    NEEDLES.iter().any(|n| e.contains(n))
}

/// Rewrite the ledger keeping only the most recent `max_entries` receipts
/// (retention bound). No-op when under the cap or the file is absent.
/// Atomic (temp + rename) so a crash mid-prune can't corrupt the ledger.
pub fn prune_ledger(path: &std::path::Path, max_entries: usize) -> std::io::Result<()> {
    if max_entries == 0 || !path.exists() {
        return Ok(());
    }
    let entries = read_ledger(path, 0);
    if entries.len() <= max_entries {
        return Ok(());
    }
    let keep = &entries[entries.len() - max_entries..];
    let mut body = String::new();
    for e in keep {
        let line = serde_json::to_string(e).map_err(std::io::Error::other)?;
        body.push_str(&line);
        body.push('\n');
    }
    let tmp = path.with_extension("jsonl.tmp");
    std::fs::write(&tmp, body)?;
    std::fs::rename(&tmp, path)
}

/// Append resolved outcome receipts to the JSONL ledger (one line each).
/// Append-only: no full-file rewrite, so this never triggers the
/// write-storm the profiles file had. Creates the file/parent on first
/// write.
pub fn append_ledger_entries(
    path: &std::path::Path,
    entries: &[OutcomeLedgerEntry],
) -> std::io::Result<()> {
    if entries.is_empty() {
        return Ok(());
    }
    if let Some(parent) = path.parent() {
        std::fs::create_dir_all(parent)?;
    }
    use std::io::Write;
    let mut opts = std::fs::OpenOptions::new();
    opts.create(true).append(true);
    // Local, privacy-bounded file (error text, soon project paths): owner
    // read/write only.
    #[cfg(unix)]
    {
        use std::os::unix::fs::OpenOptionsExt;
        opts.mode(0o600);
    }
    // On Windows `mode(0o600)` is ignored; lock the file owner-only via ACL on
    // a fresh create only (idempotent). No-op off Windows.
    let existed = path.exists();
    let mut f = opts.open(path)?;
    if !existed {
        car_secrets::harden_owner_only(path);
    }
    for e in entries {
        let line = serde_json::to_string(e).map_err(std::io::Error::other)?;
        f.write_all(line.as_bytes())?;
        f.write_all(b"\n")?;
    }
    Ok(())
}

/// Read the most recent `limit` ledger entries (0 = all). Tolerant of
/// partial/garbage lines (skips them) so a torn append never poisons a
/// read — the consumer (UsageProfile) gets whatever is well-formed.
pub fn read_ledger(path: &std::path::Path, limit: usize) -> Vec<OutcomeLedgerEntry> {
    let Ok(content) = std::fs::read_to_string(path) else {
        return Vec::new();
    };
    let mut out: Vec<OutcomeLedgerEntry> = content
        .lines()
        .filter(|l| !l.trim().is_empty())
        .filter_map(|l| serde_json::from_str(l).ok())
        .collect();
    if limit > 0 && out.len() > limit {
        out = out.split_off(out.len() - limit);
    }
    out
}

/// Tracks inference outcomes and builds performance profiles.
pub struct OutcomeTracker {
    /// In-memory profiles, keyed by model_id.
    profiles: HashMap<String, ModelProfile>,
    /// Pending outcomes: completed inference calls awaiting outcome signal.
    /// Keyed by trace_id.
    pending: HashMap<String, InferenceOutcome>,
    /// Counter for generating trace IDs.
    trace_counter: u64,
    /// Models excluded for this session (429/rate-limited). Hard exclusion.
    excluded: HashSet<String>,
    /// Set whenever a persisted field (a `ModelProfile`) changes; cleared
    /// on save. Lets the engine debounce disk writes — persist only when
    /// there's something new, instead of serializing the whole file after
    /// every inference call. `excluded`/`pending` are session-only and do
    /// not flip this.
    dirty: bool,
    /// Resolved outcome receipts awaiting append to the JSONL ledger.
    /// Drained by the engine on flush. Bounded by [`MAX_LEDGER_BUFFER`].
    ledger_buffer: std::collections::VecDeque<OutcomeLedgerEntry>,
}

impl OutcomeTracker {
    pub fn new() -> Self {
        Self {
            profiles: HashMap::new(),
            pending: HashMap::new(),
            trace_counter: 0,
            excluded: HashSet::new(),
            dirty: false,
            ledger_buffer: std::collections::VecDeque::new(),
        }
    }

    /// Push a resolved receipt to the ledger buffer (capped; oldest drops).
    fn push_ledger(&mut self, entry: OutcomeLedgerEntry) {
        if self.ledger_buffer.len() >= MAX_LEDGER_BUFFER {
            self.ledger_buffer.pop_front();
        }
        self.ledger_buffer.push_back(entry);
    }

    /// Drain buffered receipts for the engine to append to the ledger file.
    pub fn drain_ledger(&mut self) -> Vec<OutcomeLedgerEntry> {
        self.ledger_buffer.drain(..).collect()
    }

    /// Check if a model is excluded (rate-limited) for this session.
    pub fn is_excluded(&self, model_id: &str) -> bool {
        self.excluded.contains(model_id)
    }

    /// Record that an inference call started. Returns a trace_id.
    pub fn record_start(
        &mut self,
        model_id: &str,
        task: InferenceTask,
        routing_reason: &str,
    ) -> String {
        self.trace_counter += 1;
        let trace_id = format!("t-{}-{}", now_unix(), self.trace_counter);

        let outcome = InferenceOutcome {
            trace_id: trace_id.clone(),
            model_id: model_id.to_string(),
            task,
            // Length-capped: `routing_reason` is the only free-text field
            // that reaches the persisted ledger. INVARIANT: it must NEVER
            // embed prompt or output text — only a routing rationale
            // ("Code task -> Qwen3-4B"). The cap bounds accidental growth.
            routing_reason: redact_error(routing_reason),
            latency_ms: 0,
            input_tokens: 0,
            output_tokens: 0,
            cache_read_input_tokens: 0,
            cache_creation_input_tokens: 0,
            inferred_outcome: None,
            code_outcome: None,
            error: None,
            timestamp: now_unix(),
            success_credited: false,
        };

        self.pending.insert(trace_id.clone(), outcome);
        trace_id
    }

    /// Record completion of an inference call (timing + token counts).
    pub fn record_complete(
        &mut self,
        trace_id: &str,
        latency_ms: u64,
        input_tokens: usize,
        output_tokens: usize,
    ) {
        self.record_complete_cached(trace_id, latency_ms, input_tokens, output_tokens, 0, 0);
    }

    /// Like [`Self::record_complete`] but also records the prompt-cache token
    /// split (`cache_read` = hit, `cache_creation` = write). `input_tokens`
    /// here is the *uncached* prefix only — for Anthropic that's
    /// `usage.input_tokens`, with the cached portion passed separately so cost
    /// accounting prices each bucket at its own rate. The plain 4-arg
    /// [`Self::record_complete`] forwards here with both cache buckets zeroed,
    /// which is correct for non-caching providers and local inference.
    pub fn record_complete_cached(
        &mut self,
        trace_id: &str,
        latency_ms: u64,
        input_tokens: usize,
        output_tokens: usize,
        cache_read_input_tokens: usize,
        cache_creation_input_tokens: usize,
    ) {
        if let Some(outcome) = self.pending.get_mut(trace_id) {
            outcome.latency_ms = latency_ms;
            outcome.input_tokens = input_tokens;
            outcome.output_tokens = output_tokens;
            outcome.cache_read_input_tokens = cache_read_input_tokens;
            outcome.cache_creation_input_tokens = cache_creation_input_tokens;

            // Credit a *mechanical* success immediately when the call ran
            // and produced output with no error. This is symmetric with
            // `record_failure`, which books a failure the moment it happens
            // — previously a success was credited only by the 300s pending
            // sweep, so short-lived processes (the `car infer` CLI, eval
            // harnesses) exited before the sweep and NEVER recorded a
            // success, pinning working models at the 0.5 EMA prior / "0
            // successes" in the health UI (#312, only partially fixed by
            // the deferred sweep). `ema_quality` is untouched — only a real
            // downstream accept/edit signal moves quality. `success_credited`
            // stops the later sweep and any quality-signal resolution from
            // double-counting this same call.
            let mechanical_success = output_tokens > 0 && outcome.error.is_none();
            if mechanical_success {
                outcome.success_credited = true;
            }
            let model_id = outcome.model_id.clone();
            let task_key = outcome.task.to_string();

            // Update profile with timing data (the `outcome` borrow of
            // `self.pending` ends here; `self.profiles` is a disjoint field).
            let profile = self
                .profiles
                .entry(model_id.clone())
                .or_insert_with(|| ModelProfile::new(model_id));

            profile.total_calls += 1;
            profile.total_latency_ms += latency_ms;
            profile.total_input_tokens += input_tokens as u64;
            profile.total_output_tokens += output_tokens as u64;
            profile.total_cache_read_input_tokens += cache_read_input_tokens as u64;
            profile.total_cache_creation_input_tokens += cache_creation_input_tokens as u64;
            if mechanical_success {
                profile.success_count += 1;
            }

            let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key).or_default();
            ts.calls += 1;
            if mechanical_success {
                ts.successes += 1;
            }
            ts.avg_latency_ms =
                ts.avg_latency_ms + (latency_ms as f64 - ts.avg_latency_ms) / ts.calls as f64;

            profile.updated_at = now_unix();
            self.dirty = true;
        }
    }

    /// Record a failure.
    pub fn record_failure(&mut self, trace_id: &str, error: &str) {
        let mut ledger_entry = None;
        if let Some(outcome) = self.pending.get_mut(trace_id) {
            outcome.error = Some(error.to_string());

            let profile = self
                .profiles
                .entry(outcome.model_id.clone())
                .or_insert_with(|| ModelProfile::new(outcome.model_id.clone()));

            // A failed call is still a call: count it in `total_calls` so the
            // denominator includes failures (record_complete counts successes
            // the same way). Without this, `total_calls` tallied only
            // completions and could read *smaller* than `fail_count` — the
            // live symptom on parslee/* models (6 calls, 14 fails).
            profile.total_calls += 1;
            profile.fail_count += 1;

            // Rate-limit errors (429) get a harsher penalty — the model is
            // guaranteed to fail again, so drop quality aggressively.
            let is_rate_limited = error.contains("429") || error.contains("RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED");
            // No-answer failures (read timeout, connection reset, 5xx, EOF, AND
            // auth/client rejections like 401/403/400) never produced an answer,
            // so answer quality is UNKNOWN — they must stay quality-neutral. The
            // call + failure are already booked above (`total_calls`/`fail_count`)
            // so availability and the circuit breaker still react; we just leave
            // `ema_quality` / `quality_observations` untouched. See
            // `is_no_answer_failure`.
            let is_no_answer = !is_rate_limited && is_no_answer_failure(error);
            if is_rate_limited {
                // Hard-exclude for the rest of this session (#13)
                self.excluded.insert(outcome.model_id.clone());
                profile.ema_quality *= 0.1;
                // A 429 is a real (availability) quality signal — it counts.
                profile.quality_observations += 1;
            } else if !is_no_answer {
                profile.ema_quality = profile.ema_quality * (1.0 - EMA_ALPHA) + 0.0 * EMA_ALPHA;
                // A generation failure is a real graded quality signal (it moved
                // ema_quality toward 0), so it counts toward quality-evidence.
                profile.quality_observations += 1;
            }

            let task_key = outcome.task.to_string();
            let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key).or_default();
            // `failures` is an availability counter — every failure counts,
            // no-answer failures included (it feeds degradation / circuit-breaking).
            ts.failures += 1;
            if is_rate_limited {
                ts.ema_quality *= 0.1;
                ts.quality_observations += 1;
            } else if !is_no_answer {
                ts.ema_quality *= 1.0 - EMA_ALPHA;
                ts.quality_observations += 1;
            }

            profile.updated_at = now_unix();
            self.dirty = true;

            ledger_entry = Some(OutcomeLedgerEntry {
                trace_id: outcome.trace_id.clone(),
                model_id: outcome.model_id.clone(),
                task: outcome.task,
                routing_reason: outcome.routing_reason.clone(),
                latency_ms: outcome.latency_ms,
                input_tokens: outcome.input_tokens,
                output_tokens: outcome.output_tokens,
                cache_read_input_tokens: outcome.cache_read_input_tokens,
                cache_creation_input_tokens: outcome.cache_creation_input_tokens,
                success: Some(false),
                // #374 follow-up: the ledger's `quality` is ANSWER quality,
                // recorded only when an answer was actually produced. A
                // *generation* failure produced a bad answer, so it's a real
                // graded `0.0` — mirroring the in-memory EMA's move toward 0 — so
                // the scoreboard's `avg_quality` and the shadow-calibration band
                // (#369) that fold this ledger see the same answer-quality signal
                // the live EMA does. A *no-answer* failure (transport/timeout/5xx
                // OR an auth/client rejection like 401/403/400) or a *429* produced
                // NO answer, so answer quality is unknown -> `None`, keeping
                // availability noise out of the answer-quality fold — the same
                // separation `record_failure` applies to the in-memory EMA above.
                //
                // NOTE: a 429 maps to `None` here INTENTIONALLY, even though the
                // in-memory path above counts it as a quality observation
                // (`ema_quality *= 0.1`). The in-memory EMA is a *routing-
                // availability* knob (a 429 means "keep steering away this
                // session"); the ledger field is *answer* quality, and a 429
                // produced no answer to grade. Don't "align" this to `Some(0.0)`
                // — that would inject availability noise into avg_quality / the
                // shadow band (the very thing #374 set out to remove).
                quality: if is_rate_limited || is_no_answer {
                    None
                } else {
                    Some(0.0)
                },
                error: Some(redact_error(error)),
                project_id: None,
                intent: None,
                timestamp: now_unix(),
            });
        }

        if let Some(entry) = ledger_entry {
            self.push_ledger(entry);
        }

        // Failed outcomes don't need further tracking
        self.pending.remove(trace_id);
    }

    /// Resolve a request/provider capability mismatch without treating it as a
    /// model-health or answer-quality failure.
    ///
    /// The attempt is still emitted to the receipt ledger for operator
    /// visibility, but it must not change the profile that adaptive routing
    /// uses for unrelated requests to the same model.
    pub fn record_capability_rejection(&mut self, trace_id: &str, error: &str) {
        self.record_unattributed(trace_id, error);
    }

    /// Resolve a provider **account** rejection — bad/absent key, or out of
    /// credits — without treating it as a model failure.
    ///
    /// Same unattributed receipt as [`record_capability_rejection`](crate::outcome::OutcomeTracker::record_capability_rejection), different
    /// reason: the condition is account-wide, so it is not evidence about the
    /// model that happened to be selected. Booking it as a failure degrades the
    /// 30-day health EMA of every model the fallback chain touches, and that
    /// penalty outlives the top-up that fixes the account (Parslee-ai/car#650).
    pub fn record_account_rejection(&mut self, trace_id: &str, error: &str) {
        self.record_unattributed(trace_id, error);
    }

    /// Emit a receipt that records what happened without attributing it to the
    /// model: `success: None`, `quality: None`, so the ledger keeps the
    /// evidence while the routing profile stays untouched.
    fn record_unattributed(&mut self, trace_id: &str, error: &str) {
        if let Some(outcome) = self.pending.remove(trace_id) {
            self.push_ledger(OutcomeLedgerEntry {
                trace_id: outcome.trace_id,
                model_id: outcome.model_id,
                task: outcome.task,
                routing_reason: outcome.routing_reason,
                latency_ms: outcome.latency_ms,
                input_tokens: outcome.input_tokens,
                output_tokens: outcome.output_tokens,
                cache_read_input_tokens: outcome.cache_read_input_tokens,
                cache_creation_input_tokens: outcome.cache_creation_input_tokens,
                success: None,
                quality: None,
                error: Some(redact_error(error)),
                project_id: None,
                intent: None,
                timestamp: now_unix(),
            });
        }
    }

    /// Record an inferred outcome from conversation signals.
    pub fn record_inferred_outcome(&mut self, trace_id: &str, outcome: InferredOutcome) {
        if let Some(pending) = self.pending.remove(trace_id) {
            self.apply_outcome(&pending, outcome.quality_score(), outcome.is_success());
        }
    }

    /// Record an outcome from git-diff comparison (code generation).
    pub fn record_code_outcome(&mut self, trace_id: &str, outcome: CodeOutcome) {
        if let Some(pending) = self.pending.remove(trace_id) {
            self.apply_outcome(
                &pending,
                Some(outcome.quality_score()),
                Some(outcome.is_success()),
            );
        }
    }

    /// Resolve all pending outcomes for a completed conversation turn.
    /// Called with the inferred outcomes from conversation signal analysis.
    pub fn resolve_pending_from_signals(&mut self, outcomes: Vec<(String, InferredOutcome)>) {
        for (trace_id, inferred) in outcomes {
            self.record_inferred_outcome(&trace_id, inferred);
        }
    }

    /// Infer outcomes from a sequence of action results.
    ///
    /// In a reasoning session, each action's output feeds the next. If action N
    /// produced output and action N+1 succeeded using it, N was implicitly accepted.
    /// If N produced empty output or N+1 failed, N was implicitly rejected.
    ///
    /// Returns (trace_id, inferred_outcome) pairs ready for `resolve_pending_from_signals`.
    pub fn infer_outcomes_from_action_sequence(
        &self,
        action_results: &[(String, bool, f64, String)], // (trace_id, success, confidence, output)
    ) -> Vec<(String, InferredOutcome)> {
        let mut outcomes = Vec::new();

        for (i, (trace_id, success, confidence, output)) in action_results.iter().enumerate() {
            if trace_id.is_empty() {
                continue; // No trace (e.g., memgine-only action)
            }

            if !success {
                outcomes.push((
                    trace_id.clone(),
                    InferredOutcome::Rejected {
                        confidence: *confidence,
                    },
                ));
                continue;
            }

            // Check if the next action used this one's output (implicit acceptance)
            let next_succeeded = action_results
                .get(i + 1)
                .map(|(_, s, _, _)| *s)
                .unwrap_or(true); // Last action: assume accepted if successful

            let has_output = !output.trim().is_empty();

            if has_output && next_succeeded {
                outcomes.push((
                    trace_id.clone(),
                    InferredOutcome::Accepted {
                        confidence: *confidence,
                    },
                ));
            } else if has_output && !next_succeeded {
                // Output existed but downstream failed — may not be this action's fault
                outcomes.push((
                    trace_id.clone(),
                    InferredOutcome::AcceptedWithEdits {
                        confidence: confidence * 0.7,
                    },
                ));
            } else {
                outcomes.push((trace_id.clone(), InferredOutcome::Inconclusive));
            }
        }

        outcomes
    }

    /// Get the profile for a model.
    pub fn profile(&self, model_id: &str) -> Option<&ModelProfile> {
        self.profiles.get(model_id)
    }

    /// Whether a trace is still awaiting an outcome (in `pending`). Lets a
    /// caller observe, before calling `record_inferred_outcome`, whether the
    /// resolution will actually land or silently no-op (trace already resolved
    /// or swept) — so a lost outcome signal is countable, not invisible.
    pub fn has_pending(&self, trace_id: &str) -> bool {
        self.pending.contains_key(trace_id)
    }

    /// Get all profiles.
    pub fn all_profiles(&self) -> &HashMap<String, ModelProfile> {
        &self.profiles
    }

    /// Get pending trace IDs (for conversation signal analysis).
    pub fn pending_trace_ids(&self) -> Vec<String> {
        self.pending.keys().cloned().collect()
    }

    /// Get a pending outcome by trace_id.
    pub fn get_pending(&self, trace_id: &str) -> Option<&InferenceOutcome> {
        self.pending.get(trace_id)
    }

    /// Export profiles for serialization / persistence. Derived metrics
    /// (quality_per_1k_tokens) are recomputed on the way out so callers
    /// always see a consistent snapshot.
    pub fn export_profiles(&self) -> Vec<ModelProfile> {
        self.profiles
            .values()
            .cloned()
            .map(|mut p| {
                p.quality_per_1k_tokens = p.compute_quality_per_1k_tokens();
                p
            })
            .collect()
    }

    /// Import profiles as a genuine mutation (benchmark priors, CLI import
    /// from the memgine fact graph, router merges). Marks the tracker
    /// dirty so the new profiles actually reach disk on the next flush.
    /// NOTE: hydration from disk does NOT go through here — see
    /// [`load_from_file`](crate::outcome::OutcomeTracker::load_from_file), which inserts directly and stays clean (loading
    /// is not a change).
    pub fn import_profiles(&mut self, profiles: Vec<ModelProfile>) {
        for p in profiles {
            self.profiles.insert(p.model_id.clone(), p);
        }
        self.dirty = true;
    }

    /// Save profiles to a JSON file for cross-session persistence (#13).
    ///
    /// Atomic: serialize to a sibling temp file, then rename over the
    /// target. This is the durable receipt store — a torn `write()`
    /// (crash mid-write) would corrupt it, and `load_from_file` treats a
    /// parse failure as a hard error, which on next boot loses *all*
    /// history. The temp+rename makes a partial write impossible.
    pub fn save_to_file(&self, path: &std::path::Path) -> Result<(), std::io::Error> {
        let profiles = self.export_profiles();
        let json = serde_json::to_string_pretty(&profiles).map_err(std::io::Error::other)?;
        if let Some(parent) = path.parent() {
            std::fs::create_dir_all(parent)?;
        }
        let tmp = path.with_extension("json.tmp");
        std::fs::write(&tmp, json)?;
        std::fs::rename(&tmp, path)
    }

    /// True if a persisted profile has changed since the last save.
    pub fn is_dirty(&self) -> bool {
        self.dirty
    }

    /// Save only if dirty, clearing the flag on success. Returns whether
    /// a write happened. Lets callers persist cheaply on a timer without
    /// rewriting the whole file when nothing changed.
    pub fn save_if_dirty(&mut self, path: &std::path::Path) -> Result<bool, std::io::Error> {
        if !self.dirty {
            return Ok(false);
        }
        self.save_to_file(path)?;
        self.dirty = false;
        Ok(true)
    }

    /// Load profiles from a JSON file for cross-session persistence (#13).
    pub fn load_from_file(&mut self, path: &std::path::Path) -> Result<usize, std::io::Error> {
        if !path.exists() {
            return Ok(0);
        }
        let json = std::fs::read_to_string(path)?;
        let profiles: Vec<ModelProfile> = serde_json::from_str(&json)
            .map_err(|e| std::io::Error::new(std::io::ErrorKind::InvalidData, e))?;
        let count = profiles.len();
        // Insert directly (NOT via import_profiles): hydration from disk is
        // not a change, so it must not flip the dirty flag — otherwise the
        // first idle flush would needlessly rewrite the file we just read.
        for mut p in profiles {
            // Migration: profiles persisted before `quality_observations`
            // existed deserialize it as 0, which would make the router forget
            // learned distrust (a model the EMA dropped on past failures would
            // revert to its schema estimate). Failures are always graded, so
            // `fail_count` is a safe lower bound — backfill from it so learned
            // distrust survives the upgrade. No-op for profiles written by this
            // version (a failure always bumps `quality_observations`, so the
            // count is already ≥ `fail_count`).
            backfill_quality_observations(&mut p);
            self.profiles.insert(p.model_id.clone(), p);
        }
        Ok(count)
    }

    /// Apply a quality signal to the model's profile.
    fn apply_outcome(
        &mut self,
        pending: &InferenceOutcome,
        quality: Option<f64>,
        success: Option<bool>,
    ) {
        let profile = self
            .profiles
            .entry(pending.model_id.clone())
            .or_insert_with(|| ModelProfile::new(pending.model_id.clone()));

        if let Some(q) = quality {
            profile.ema_quality = profile.ema_quality * (1.0 - EMA_ALPHA) + q * EMA_ALPHA;
            profile.quality_observations += 1;

            let task_key = pending.task.to_string();
            let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key).or_default();
            ts.ema_quality = ts.ema_quality * (1.0 - EMA_ALPHA) + q * EMA_ALPHA;
            ts.quality_observations += 1;
        }

        if let Some(ok) = success {
            // The call may have already been credited a mechanical success at
            // completion (record_complete). Don't double-count it here.
            let already_credited = pending.success_credited;
            let task_key = pending.task.to_string();
            if ok {
                if !already_credited {
                    profile.success_count += 1;
                    let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key).or_default();
                    ts.successes += 1;
                }
                // else: already counted; the quality EMA above is the new info.
            } else {
                // A real downstream signal says this call was bad. If we
                // mechanically credited it as a success at completion,
                // reclassify: undo the success and book a failure instead.
                if already_credited {
                    profile.success_count = profile.success_count.saturating_sub(1);
                    let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key.clone()).or_default();
                    ts.successes = ts.successes.saturating_sub(1);
                }
                profile.fail_count += 1;
                let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(task_key).or_default();
                ts.failures += 1;
            }
        }

        profile.updated_at = now_unix();
        self.dirty = true;

        self.push_ledger(OutcomeLedgerEntry {
            trace_id: pending.trace_id.clone(),
            model_id: pending.model_id.clone(),
            task: pending.task,
            routing_reason: pending.routing_reason.clone(),
            latency_ms: pending.latency_ms,
            input_tokens: pending.input_tokens,
            output_tokens: pending.output_tokens,
            cache_read_input_tokens: pending.cache_read_input_tokens,
            cache_creation_input_tokens: pending.cache_creation_input_tokens,
            success,
            quality,
            error: None,
            project_id: None,
            intent: None,
            timestamp: now_unix(),
        });
    }

    /// Evict `pending` entries older than `ttl_secs` so the map can't grow
    /// without bound in a long-running daemon (only a few resolution paths
    /// ever drain it). For each evicted entry that actually *completed*
    /// (latency recorded), emit a terminal `Inconclusive` receipt — this
    /// also de-biases the ledger: without it, the ledger would only ever
    /// contain calls that happened to get a follow-up signal (a
    /// systematic skew toward reasoning-session traffic), and downstream
    /// stats would be computed over a non-representative sample. Returns
    /// the number of entries swept.
    pub fn sweep_pending(&mut self, ttl_secs: u64) -> usize {
        self.sweep_pending_at(ttl_secs, now_unix())
    }

    /// Clock-injectable core of [`sweep_pending`] for deterministic tests.
    fn sweep_pending_at(&mut self, ttl_secs: u64, now: u64) -> usize {
        let cutoff = now.saturating_sub(ttl_secs);
        let expired: Vec<String> = self
            .pending
            .iter()
            .filter(|(_, o)| o.timestamp < cutoff)
            .map(|(id, _)| id.clone())
            .collect();
        for id in &expired {
            if let Some(o) = self.pending.remove(id) {
                // Only completed-but-unresolved calls become receipts; a
                // never-completed trace (latency 0) is in-flight/crashed —
                // a zero-everything receipt would be noise.
                if o.latency_ms > 0 {
                    // A swept call completed but never received a downstream
                    // quality signal. Recording *every* such call Inconclusive
                    // (`success: None`) left signal-less models — notably ALL
                    // local inference, which has no accept/edit feedback loop —
                    // pinned at the 0.5 EMA prior with zero successes, so the
                    // health UI rendered working models as "50%"/"0%" (#312).
                    // Instead, credit a *mechanical* success when the call
                    // actually returned output with no error: it ran and
                    // produced tokens; we simply never learned whether the
                    // answer was *good*. `quality` stays None so `ema_quality`
                    // is only ever moved by a real quality signal. A completion
                    // that produced no output stays Inconclusive (ambiguous).
                    // Credit a mechanical success here ONLY if it wasn't
                    // already booked at completion (record_complete now does
                    // this immediately for the common case). A call credited
                    // at completion still gets a `Some(true)` receipt below,
                    // but its count is not incremented twice.
                    let credit_now =
                        o.output_tokens > 0 && o.error.is_none() && !o.success_credited;
                    let was_success = o.success_credited || credit_now;
                    if credit_now {
                        let profile = self
                            .profiles
                            .entry(o.model_id.clone())
                            .or_insert_with(|| ModelProfile::new(o.model_id.clone()));
                        profile.success_count += 1;
                        let ts = profile.task_stats.entry(o.task.to_string()).or_default();
                        ts.successes += 1;
                        profile.updated_at = now_unix();
                        self.dirty = true;
                    }
                    self.push_ledger(OutcomeLedgerEntry {
                        trace_id: o.trace_id,
                        model_id: o.model_id,
                        task: o.task,
                        routing_reason: o.routing_reason,
                        latency_ms: o.latency_ms,
                        input_tokens: o.input_tokens,
                        output_tokens: o.output_tokens,
                        cache_read_input_tokens: o.cache_read_input_tokens,
                        cache_creation_input_tokens: o.cache_creation_input_tokens,
                        success: if was_success { Some(true) } else { None },
                        quality: None,
                        error: None,
                        project_id: None,
                        intent: None,
                        timestamp: now_unix(),
                    });
                }
            }
        }
        expired.len()
    }

    /// Check git diff for pending code suggestions and resolve outcomes.
    ///
    /// Two strategies:
    /// 1. **AST structural diff** (when `ast` feature is enabled): parse the old
    ///    and new versions of changed files and compare at the symbol level.
    ///    This gives precise outcomes: SignatureChanged, BodyModified, SymbolAdded.
    /// 2. **Text diff fallback**: token matching against the combined git diff.
    pub fn check_git_outcomes(&mut self, repo_dir: &std::path::Path) {
        let diff = match std::process::Command::new("git")
            .args(["diff", "--no-color"])
            .current_dir(repo_dir)
            .output()
        {
            Ok(output) => String::from_utf8_lossy(&output.stdout).to_string(),
            Err(_) => return,
        };

        let staged_diff = match std::process::Command::new("git")
            .args(["diff", "--cached", "--no-color"])
            .current_dir(repo_dir)
            .output()
        {
            Ok(output) => String::from_utf8_lossy(&output.stdout).to_string(),
            Err(_) => String::new(),
        };

        let combined_diff = format!("{}\n{}", diff, staged_diff);

        if combined_diff.trim().is_empty() {
            return; // No changes at all
        }

        // Try AST structural diff on changed files
        #[cfg(feature = "ast")]
        let ast_outcome = Self::check_git_outcomes_ast(repo_dir);

        let code_traces: Vec<(String, String)> = self
            .pending
            .iter()
            .filter(|(_, o)| matches!(o.task, InferenceTask::Code))
            .map(|(id, o)| (id.clone(), o.model_id.clone()))
            .collect();

        for (trace_id, _model_id) in code_traces {
            if let Some(pending) = self.pending.get(&trace_id) {
                // Try AST-based outcome first
                #[cfg(feature = "ast")]
                if let Some(ref ast_out) = ast_outcome {
                    let pending_clone = pending.clone();
                    self.apply_outcome(
                        &pending_clone,
                        Some(ast_out.quality_score()),
                        Some(ast_out.is_success()),
                    );
                    continue;
                }

                // Fallback: text token matching
                let output_tokens: Vec<&str> = pending
                    .routing_reason
                    .split_whitespace()
                    .filter(|t| t.len() > 5)
                    .collect();

                let outcome = if output_tokens.iter().any(|t| combined_diff.contains(t)) {
                    CodeOutcome::Applied
                } else {
                    CodeOutcome::Modified
                };

                let pending_clone = pending.clone();
                self.apply_outcome(
                    &pending_clone,
                    Some(outcome.quality_score()),
                    Some(outcome.is_success()),
                );
            }
        }
    }

    /// AST-based git outcome: parse changed files before and after, diff symbols.
    #[cfg(feature = "ast")]
    fn check_git_outcomes_ast(repo_dir: &std::path::Path) -> Option<CodeOutcome> {
        // Get list of changed files
        let name_only = std::process::Command::new("git")
            .args(["diff", "--name-only"])
            .current_dir(repo_dir)
            .output()
            .ok()?;
        let changed_files: Vec<&str> = std::str::from_utf8(&name_only.stdout)
            .ok()?
            .lines()
            .filter(|f| !f.is_empty())
            .collect();

        if changed_files.is_empty() {
            return None;
        }

        let mut has_sig_change = false;
        let mut has_body_change = false;
        let mut has_addition = false;

        for file in &changed_files {
            // Only parse files tree-sitter supports
            if car_ast::Language::from_filename(file).is_none() {
                continue;
            }

            // Get the HEAD version
            let old_content = std::process::Command::new("git")
                .args(["show", &format!("HEAD:{}", file)])
                .current_dir(repo_dir)
                .output()
                .ok()
                .and_then(|o| {
                    if o.status.success() {
                        String::from_utf8(o.stdout).ok()
                    } else {
                        None
                    }
                });

            // Get the working tree version
            let new_path = repo_dir.join(file);
            let new_content = std::fs::read_to_string(&new_path).ok();

            match (old_content, new_content) {
                (Some(old), Some(new)) => {
                    let old_parsed = car_ast::parse_file(&old, file);
                    let new_parsed = car_ast::parse_file(&new, file);

                    if let (Some(old_p), Some(new_p)) = (old_parsed, new_parsed) {
                        let changes = car_ast::diff_symbols(&old_p, &new_p);
                        for change in &changes {
                            match change {
                                car_ast::SymbolChange::Added(_) => has_addition = true,
                                car_ast::SymbolChange::Modified {
                                    signature_changed, ..
                                } => {
                                    if *signature_changed {
                                        has_sig_change = true;
                                    } else {
                                        has_body_change = true;
                                    }
                                }
                                car_ast::SymbolChange::Removed(_) => has_sig_change = true,
                            }
                        }
                    }
                }
                (None, Some(_)) => has_addition = true, // New file
                _ => {}
            }
        }

        // Return the most significant outcome
        if has_sig_change {
            Some(CodeOutcome::SignatureChanged)
        } else if has_body_change {
            Some(CodeOutcome::BodyModified)
        } else if has_addition {
            Some(CodeOutcome::SymbolAdded)
        } else {
            None // No structural changes detected (maybe non-code files changed)
        }
    }
}

impl Default for OutcomeTracker {
    fn default() -> Self {
        Self::new()
    }
}

fn now_unix() -> u64 {
    SystemTime::now()
        .duration_since(UNIX_EPOCH)
        .unwrap_or_default()
        .as_secs()
}

#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
    use super::*;

    #[test]
    fn lifecycle() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        // Start an inference call
        let trace = tracker.record_start(
            "qwen/qwen3-4b:q4_k_m",
            InferenceTask::Code,
            "Code task -> Qwen3-4B",
        );

        // Complete it
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 1200, 100, 50);

        // Profile should have 1 call
        let profile = tracker.profile("qwen/qwen3-4b:q4_k_m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(profile.total_calls, 1);
        assert_eq!(profile.avg_latency_ms(), 1200.0);

        // Record positive outcome
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&trace, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.9 });

        let profile = tracker.profile("qwen/qwen3-4b:q4_k_m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(profile.success_count, 1);
        assert!(profile.ema_quality > 0.5); // should have gone up from 0.5
    }

    #[test]
    fn failure_degrades() {
        // A failed call goes through record_failure ONLY — it never also
        // hits record_complete (a call either completes or errors, not both).
        // record_complete now credits a mechanical success, so mixing the two
        // on one trace would model a flow that does not occur.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        for _ in 0..5 {
            let trace = tracker.record_start("bad-model", InferenceTask::Generate, "test");
            // A *generation* failure (not a transport/timeout error, which is
            // quality-neutral — see `transport_failures_are_quality_neutral`).
            tracker.record_failure(&trace, "model produced malformed output");
        }

        let profile = tracker.profile("bad-model").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(profile.fail_count, 5);
        assert_eq!(profile.success_count, 0);
        assert!(profile.should_degrade(2)); // 5 > 0 + 2
        assert!(profile.ema_quality < 0.3); // decayed toward 0
    }

    #[test]
    fn code_outcome_ground_truth() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        let trace = tracker.record_start("qwen/qwen3-4b:q4_k_m", InferenceTask::Code, "code");
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 500, 200, 100);
        tracker.record_code_outcome(&trace, CodeOutcome::Applied);

        let profile = tracker.profile("qwen/qwen3-4b:q4_k_m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(profile.success_count, 1);
        // EMA should reflect Applied quality (1.0): 0.5 * 0.8 + 1.0 * 0.2 = 0.6
        assert!((profile.ema_quality - 0.6).abs() < 0.01);
    }

    #[test]
    fn per_task_stats() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        // Two code calls, one generate call
        for _ in 0..2 {
            let trace = tracker.record_start("m1", InferenceTask::Code, "code");
            tracker.record_complete(&trace, 1000, 100, 50);
            tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&trace, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.8 });
        }
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m1", InferenceTask::Generate, "gen");
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 500, 50, 25);
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&trace, InferredOutcome::Rejected { confidence: 0.9 });

        let profile = tracker.profile("m1").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(profile.total_calls, 3);

        let code_stats = profile.task_stats(InferenceTask::Code).unwrap();
        assert_eq!(code_stats.calls, 2);
        assert_eq!(code_stats.successes, 2);

        let gen_stats = profile.task_stats(InferenceTask::Generate).unwrap();
        assert_eq!(gen_stats.calls, 1);
        assert_eq!(gen_stats.failures, 1);
    }

    #[test]
    fn export_populates_quality_per_1k_tokens() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m1", InferenceTask::Generate, "test");
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 100, 800, 200); // 1000 tokens total
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&trace, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 1.0 });

        let exported = tracker.export_profiles();
        assert_eq!(exported.len(), 1);
        let p = &exported[0];
        // ema_quality after one Accepted{1.0}: 0.5 * 0.8 + 1.0 * 0.2 = 0.6
        // quality_per_1k = 0.6 * 1000 / 1000 = 0.6
        assert!(
            (p.quality_per_1k_tokens - 0.6).abs() < 1e-6,
            "got {}",
            p.quality_per_1k_tokens
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn quality_per_1k_tokens_zero_without_tokens() {
        let profile = ModelProfile::new("x".into());
        assert_eq!(profile.compute_quality_per_1k_tokens(), 0.0);
    }

    #[test]
    fn tokens_per_success_is_outcome_denominated() {
        let mut p = ModelProfile::new("x".into());
        // No success yet → None (not a fabricated number).
        assert_eq!(p.tokens_per_success(), None);
        // 900 total tokens over 3 successful outcomes → 300 tokens/success.
        p.total_input_tokens = 600;
        p.total_output_tokens = 300;
        p.success_count = 3;
        assert_eq!(p.tokens_per_success(), Some(300.0));
        // Dollar cost-per-success: (600*$1 + 300*$2)/1M / 3 successes.
        let usd = p.usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::ANTHROPIC).unwrap();
        assert!((usd - ((600.0 * 1.0 + 300.0 * 2.0) / 1_000_000.0 / 3.0)).abs() < 1e-12);
        assert_eq!(
            ModelProfile::new("y".into()).usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::ANTHROPIC),
            None
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn usd_per_success_prices_cache_buckets_separately() {
        let mut p = ModelProfile::new("cached".into());
        p.success_count = 1;
        p.total_input_tokens = 100; // uncached prefix @ 1.0×
        p.total_cache_read_input_tokens = 1000; // hit @ 0.1×
        p.total_cache_creation_input_tokens = 200; // write @ 1.25×
        p.total_output_tokens = 50; // output @ 2.0×
                                    // Each input bucket priced at its own multiplier off the $1/Mtok base.
        let expected_input = (100.0 * 1.0 + 1000.0 * 1.0 * 0.1 + 200.0 * 1.0 * 1.25) / 1_000_000.0;
        let expected = expected_input + 50.0 * 2.0 / 1_000_000.0;
        let usd = p.usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::ANTHROPIC).unwrap();
        assert!((usd - expected).abs() < 1e-12, "got {usd}, want {expected}");
        // Token efficiency counts all real tokens, cache included.
        assert_eq!(p.total_tokens(), 100 + 1000 + 200 + 50);
        // A cache hit must be ~10× cheaper than counting it as full input,
        // which is the whole point of fixing the accounting.
        let mut naive = ModelProfile::new("naive".into());
        naive.success_count = 1;
        naive.total_input_tokens = 1300; // same tokens, all priced at 1.0×
        naive.total_output_tokens = 50;
        assert!(
            naive
                .usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::ANTHROPIC)
                .unwrap()
                > usd
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn openai_cache_rates_price_reads_at_half_no_write_premium() {
        // OpenAI economics: cached reads at 0.5×, no write bucket. Same token
        // counts as Anthropic must cost MORE under OpenAI (0.5× vs 0.1× reads).
        let mut p = ModelProfile::new("gpt".into());
        p.success_count = 1;
        p.total_input_tokens = 100; // uncached @ 1.0×
        p.total_cache_read_input_tokens = 1000; // OpenAI hit @ 0.5×
        p.total_cache_creation_input_tokens = 0; // OpenAI has no write bucket
        let usd = p.usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::OPENAI).unwrap();
        let expected = (100.0 * 1.0 + 1000.0 * 1.0 * 0.5) / 1_000_000.0;
        assert!((usd - expected).abs() < 1e-12, "got {usd}, want {expected}");
        // Same buckets under Anthropic rates (0.1× read) are cheaper.
        let anthropic = p.usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::ANTHROPIC).unwrap();
        assert!(
            usd > anthropic,
            "OpenAI 0.5× read must exceed Anthropic 0.1×"
        );
        // And both beat pricing the cache hit as full uncached input (1.0×).
        let mut naive = ModelProfile::new("naive".into());
        naive.success_count = 1;
        naive.total_input_tokens = 1100;
        assert!(naive.usd_per_success(1.0, 2.0, CacheRates::OPENAI).unwrap() > usd);
    }

    #[test]
    fn record_complete_cached_accumulates_cache_totals() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "gen");
        tracker.record_complete_cached(&trace, 100, 40, 20, 800, 120);
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.total_input_tokens, 40, "uncached prefix only");
        assert_eq!(p.total_cache_read_input_tokens, 800);
        assert_eq!(p.total_cache_creation_input_tokens, 120);
    }

    #[test]
    fn dirty_flag_and_save_if_dirty() {
        let dir = std::env::temp_dir().join("car-outcome-dirty-test");
        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
        let path = dir.join("outcome_profiles.json");

        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        // Fresh tracker is clean → save_if_dirty is a no-op.
        assert!(!tracker.is_dirty());
        assert!(!tracker.save_if_dirty(&path).unwrap());
        assert!(!path.exists());

        // A recorded outcome dirties it.
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m1", InferenceTask::Generate, "router");
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 100, 10, 20);
        assert!(tracker.is_dirty());

        // save_if_dirty writes once and clears the flag.
        assert!(tracker.save_if_dirty(&path).unwrap());
        assert!(path.exists());
        assert!(!tracker.is_dirty());

        // Second call with no new changes does not rewrite.
        assert!(!tracker.save_if_dirty(&path).unwrap());

        // Loading profiles must NOT mark the tracker dirty.
        let mut fresh = OutcomeTracker::new();
        fresh.load_from_file(&path).unwrap();
        assert!(!fresh.is_dirty());

        // But a genuine import (benchmark priors / CLI) MUST dirty, so the
        // imported profiles actually persist on the next flush.
        fresh.import_profiles(vec![ModelProfile::new("seeded".into())]);
        assert!(fresh.is_dirty());

        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
    }

    #[test]
    fn ledger_captures_resolved_outcomes() {
        let dir = std::env::temp_dir().join("car-outcome-ledger-test");
        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
        let path = dir.join("outcome_ledger.jsonl");

        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        // A success with a quality signal → one resolved receipt.
        let t1 = tracker.record_start("good-model", InferenceTask::Generate, "router:test");
        tracker.record_complete(&t1, 1200, 50, 100);
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&t1, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.9 });

        // A failure → one resolved receipt with the error.
        let t2 = tracker.record_start("bad-model", InferenceTask::Code, "router:test");
        tracker.record_failure(&t2, "boom: 500");

        let drained = tracker.drain_ledger();
        assert_eq!(drained.len(), 2);
        assert!(tracker.drain_ledger().is_empty(), "drain clears the buffer");

        append_ledger_entries(&path, &drained).unwrap();
        let read = read_ledger(&path, 0);
        assert_eq!(read.len(), 2);

        let good = read.iter().find(|e| e.model_id == "good-model").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(good.success, Some(true));
        assert!(good.quality.is_some());
        assert_eq!(good.routing_reason, "router:test");
        assert_eq!(good.latency_ms, 1200);

        let bad = read.iter().find(|e| e.model_id == "bad-model").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(bad.success, Some(false));
        assert_eq!(bad.error.as_deref(), Some("boom: 500"));

        // Read back limited to most recent 1.
        assert_eq!(read_ledger(&path, 1).len(), 1);

        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
    }

    #[test]
    fn ledger_redacts_long_errors_and_prunes() {
        let dir = std::env::temp_dir().join("car-outcome-privacy-test");
        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
        let path = dir.join("outcome_ledger.jsonl");

        // Long error is truncated on capture.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        let huge = "x".repeat(5000);
        tracker.record_failure(&t, &huge);
        let drained = tracker.drain_ledger();
        let err = drained[0].error.as_ref().unwrap();
        assert!(
            err.chars().count() <= MAX_LEDGER_ERROR_CHARS + 1,
            "error truncated"
        );

        // Pruning keeps only the most recent N.
        let entries: Vec<OutcomeLedgerEntry> = (0..10)
            .map(|i| OutcomeLedgerEntry {
                trace_id: format!("t{i}"),
                model_id: "m".into(),
                task: InferenceTask::Generate,
                routing_reason: "r".into(),
                latency_ms: 1,
                input_tokens: 1,
                output_tokens: 1,
                cache_read_input_tokens: 0,
                cache_creation_input_tokens: 0,
                success: Some(true),
                quality: Some(1.0),
                error: None,
                project_id: None,
                intent: None,
                timestamp: i,
            })
            .collect();
        append_ledger_entries(&path, &entries).unwrap();
        prune_ledger(&path, 3).unwrap();
        let kept = read_ledger(&path, 0);
        assert_eq!(kept.len(), 3);
        assert_eq!(kept[0].trace_id, "t7"); // most recent 3: t7,t8,t9
        assert_eq!(kept[2].trace_id, "t9");

        let _ = std::fs::remove_dir_all(&dir);
    }

    #[test]
    fn sweep_pending_credits_mechanical_success_or_inconclusive() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        // Completed with output, no signal -> mechanical success (#312).
        let t1 = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t1, 500, 10, 20);
        // Completed but produced NO output -> stays Inconclusive.
        let t2 = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t2, 300, 5, 0);
        // A never-completed call (in-flight / crashed) -> no receipt.
        let _t3 = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");

        // Evaluate the sweep against a clock 10s in the future so the
        // same-second pending entries are unambiguously past the cutoff.
        let swept = tracker.sweep_pending_at(0, now_unix() + 10);
        assert_eq!(swept, 3, "all pending entries evicted");

        // Only the two completed calls become receipts.
        let mut receipts = tracker.drain_ledger();
        receipts.sort_by_key(|r| r.latency_ms);
        assert_eq!(receipts.len(), 2);
        // 300ms, no output -> Inconclusive
        assert_eq!(receipts[0].latency_ms, 300);
        assert_eq!(receipts[0].success, None);
        // 500ms, produced output -> mechanical success, quality untouched
        assert_eq!(receipts[1].latency_ms, 500);
        assert_eq!(receipts[1].success, Some(true));
        assert_eq!(receipts[1].quality, None);

        // success_count is credited; ema_quality stays the neutral prior
        // (no real quality signal ever arrived).
        let p = tracker.profile("m").expect("profile exists");
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 1);
        assert_eq!(p.ema_quality, 0.5);
    }

    #[test]
    fn record_complete_credits_success_immediately() {
        // The headline fix: a call that completes with output is credited a
        // success at completion, not deferred to the 300s sweep — so a
        // short-lived process (CLI) that exits before any sweep still records
        // the success. Previously success_count stayed 0 and health read 0.5.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t, 500, 12, 20);

        let p = tracker.profile("m").expect("profile exists");
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 1, "success credited at completion");
        assert_eq!(p.total_calls, 1);
        assert_eq!(p.total_input_tokens, 12, "input tokens recorded, not 0");
        assert_eq!(p.fail_count, 0);

        // A later sweep of the same (still-pending) call must NOT double-count.
        tracker.sweep_pending_at(0, now_unix() + 10);
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 1, "sweep does not re-credit");
    }

    #[test]
    fn success_rate_resolved_distinguishes_no_signal_from_measured() {
        // Display surfaces must not show a never-measured model as a confident
        // "50%": `success_rate_resolved()` returns None until something
        // resolves, then the real ratio. (The router never derives a rate
        // here — it reads raw success/fail counts directly.)
        let mut p = ModelProfile::new("m".to_string());
        assert_eq!(
            p.success_rate_resolved(),
            None,
            "no resolved signal, not a fabricated 0.5"
        );

        p.success_count = 3;
        p.fail_count = 1;
        assert_eq!(
            p.success_rate_resolved(),
            Some(0.75),
            "real rate once resolved"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn quality_observations_count_only_graded_signals() {
        // #3: a mechanical success must NOT count as a graded quality
        // observation (it leaves answer quality unknown), but an accept/reject
        // signal and a failure must. The router keys reliability on this count.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        // Mechanical success — credited, but quality stays unknown.
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t, 500, 12, 20);
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 1);
        assert_eq!(
            p.quality_observations, 0,
            "mechanical success is not a graded quality observation"
        );
        assert!(
            (p.ema_quality - 0.5).abs() < 1e-9,
            "EMA untouched by mechanical success"
        );

        // A real accept signal — graded.
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&t, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.9 });
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.quality_observations, 1, "graded accept signal counts");
        assert!(p.ema_quality > 0.5, "graded accept moved the EMA up");
        assert_eq!(
            p.task_stats(InferenceTask::Generate)
                .unwrap()
                .quality_observations,
            1,
            "per-task graded count tracked too"
        );

        // A failure — also graded (moves EMA toward 0).
        let t2 = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t2, "boom");
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.quality_observations, 2, "failure is a graded observation");
    }

    #[test]
    fn record_complete_no_output_is_not_a_success() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t, 300, 5, 0); // no output
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 0, "no output -> no mechanical success");
        assert_eq!(p.total_calls, 1);
    }

    #[test]
    fn record_failure_counts_total_calls() {
        // A failed call is still a call. total_calls must include it so it can
        // never read smaller than fail_count (the parslee/* 6-calls/14-fails
        // symptom).
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        for _ in 0..3 {
            let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
            tracker.record_failure(&t, "boom 500");
        }
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.fail_count, 3);
        assert_eq!(p.total_calls, 3, "failures counted in total_calls");
        assert!(p.fail_count <= p.total_calls);
    }

    #[test]
    fn capability_rejection_does_not_change_model_profile() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");

        tracker.record_capability_rejection(&trace, "unsupported mode: json schema");

        assert!(tracker.profile("m").is_none());
        assert!(!tracker.has_pending(&trace));
        assert_eq!(tracker.ledger_buffer.len(), 1);
    }

    #[test]
    fn transport_failures_are_quality_neutral() {
        // A read-timeout / connection error means the model never produced an
        // answer — its answer quality is UNKNOWN, so transport failures must not
        // move the quality EMA or count as graded quality evidence. (Observed
        // live: parslee/* collapsed to ema_quality ≈ 0.003 after ~23 daemon
        // read-timeouts, which buried it under every workload.) They DO still
        // count for availability (total_calls / fail_count / circuit breaker).
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        // One genuine generation failure establishes the baseline EMA + a
        // graded quality observation.
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "model produced malformed output");
        let baseline_ema = tracker.profile("m").unwrap().ema_quality;
        let baseline_qobs = tracker.profile("m").unwrap().quality_observations;

        // Hammer with transport timeouts AND auth/client rejections — neither
        // produced an answer, so quality must not budge. The 401 case is the
        // live parslee/* symptom: ~47 "HTTP 401 Unauthorized" from an undeployed
        // gateway must not bury the model on *answer* quality.
        for _ in 0..5 {
            let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
            tracker.record_failure(&t, "daemon read timeout on infer after 30s");
        }
        for _ in 0..5 {
            let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
            tracker.record_failure(
                &t,
                "inference failed: Parslee org lookup failed: HTTP 401 Unauthorized: Authentication",
            );
        }

        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(
            p.fail_count, 11,
            "no-answer failures still counted for availability"
        );
        assert_eq!(p.total_calls, 11, "every call counted (failures included)");
        assert!(
            (p.ema_quality - baseline_ema).abs() < 1e-9,
            "timeouts AND auth rejections must not move the quality EMA ({baseline_ema} -> {})",
            p.ema_quality
        );
        assert_eq!(
            p.quality_observations, baseline_qobs,
            "no-answer failures (transport + auth) are not graded quality evidence"
        );
        // Contrast: a real generation failure still penalizes quality.
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "model produced malformed output");
        assert!(
            tracker.profile("m").unwrap().ema_quality < baseline_ema,
            "a non-transport failure must still move the quality EMA down"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn is_no_answer_failure_precision_boundary() {
        // The classifier gates whether a failure counts as answer-quality, so
        // pin both sides of the precision boundary it promises. Matches are on
        // the FAILURE error string only (never model output).
        // No-answer: transport/infra + auth/client rejection → quality-neutral.
        for s in [
            "daemon read timeout on infer after 30s",
            "connection reset by peer",
            "upstream returned 503 service unavailable",
            "HTTP 500 Internal Server Error",
            "stream closed unexpectedly (eof)",
            "HTTP 401 Unauthorized",
            "unauthenticated request",
            "HTTP 403 Forbidden",
            "permission denied by gateway",
            "Parslee org lookup failed: Authentication required",
            "oauth: invalid_client",
            "invalid api key",
            "HTTP 400 Bad Request: max context length exceeded",
        ] {
            assert!(
                is_no_answer_failure(s),
                "expected no-answer (quality-neutral): {s:?}"
            );
        }
        // Generation failures: the model produced output that was bad/unparseable.
        // These MUST stay generation failures (graded), NOT be swallowed as
        // no-answer — including the deliberately-excluded ambiguous phrases.
        for s in [
            "model produced malformed output",
            "field 'user' not found in model response", // not "not found" → no-answer
            "tokenizer: invalid token id 99999",        // not "invalid token" → no-answer
            "response failed JSON schema validation",
            "tool call arguments did not validate",
        ] {
            assert!(
                !is_no_answer_failure(s),
                "expected generation failure (graded): {s:?}"
            );
        }
    }

    #[test]
    fn ledger_quality_distinguishes_generation_from_transport_failure() {
        // The durable ledger's `quality` is ANSWER quality, mirroring the
        // in-memory EMA (#374 follow-up). A generation failure produced a bad
        // answer → graded `Some(0.0)`; a transport failure or a 429 produced no
        // answer → `None`. This keeps the scoreboard's avg_quality and the
        // shadow-calibration band (#369) — both of which fold this ledger — free
        // of availability noise while still seeing the genuine bad-answer signal.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();

        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "model produced malformed output"); // generation
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "daemon read timeout on infer after 30s"); // transport
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED"); // rate-limit
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "upstream: 503 service unavailable"); // 5xx infra
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        tracker.record_failure(&t, "HTTP 500 Internal Server Error"); // server fault
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Code, "r");
        // The live parslee/* failure: auth rejection, no answer produced.
        tracker.record_failure(
            &t,
            "inference failed: Parslee org lookup failed: HTTP 401 Unauthorized: Authentication",
        );

        let entries = tracker.drain_ledger();
        assert_eq!(entries.len(), 6);
        // All are failures for availability accounting.
        assert!(entries.iter().all(|e| e.success == Some(false)));
        // Only the generation failure carries a graded answer-quality of 0.0.
        assert_eq!(
            entries[0].quality,
            Some(0.0),
            "generation failure -> graded 0.0 answer quality"
        );
        assert_eq!(
            entries[1].quality, None,
            "transport failure produced no answer -> quality unknown (None)"
        );
        assert_eq!(
            entries[2].quality, None,
            "429 produced no answer -> quality unknown (None), an availability event"
        );
        assert_eq!(
            entries[3].quality, None,
            "5xx infra failure produced no answer -> None"
        );
        assert_eq!(
            entries[4].quality, None,
            "an 'internal server error' (500) is a server fault, not a bad answer -> None"
        );
        assert_eq!(
            entries[5].quality, None,
            "a 401 auth rejection produced no answer -> None (not a bad-answer 0.0)"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn real_failure_signal_reclassifies_mechanical_success() {
        // Completed with output -> mechanical success. A later Rejected signal
        // overrides it: undo the success, book a failure. No phantom success.
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t, 100, 8, 15);
        assert_eq!(tracker.profile("m").unwrap().success_count, 1);

        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&t, InferredOutcome::Rejected { confidence: 0.9 });
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(p.success_count, 0, "mechanical success undone");
        assert_eq!(p.fail_count, 1, "failure booked");
    }

    #[test]
    fn real_success_signal_does_not_double_count() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let t = tracker.record_start("m", InferenceTask::Generate, "r");
        tracker.record_complete(&t, 100, 8, 15);
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&t, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.9 });
        let p = tracker.profile("m").unwrap();
        assert_eq!(
            p.success_count, 1,
            "Accepted on an already-credited call is not +2"
        );
    }

    #[test]
    fn export_import() {
        let mut tracker = OutcomeTracker::new();
        let trace = tracker.record_start("m1", InferenceTask::Generate, "test");
        tracker.record_complete(&trace, 100, 10, 5);
        tracker.record_inferred_outcome(&trace, InferredOutcome::Accepted { confidence: 0.9 });

        let exported = tracker.export_profiles();
        assert_eq!(exported.len(), 1);

        let mut tracker2 = OutcomeTracker::new();
        tracker2.import_profiles(exported);
        assert!(tracker2.profile("m1").is_some());
    }
}